MLB Home Run Predictions — September 15, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-15: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 15, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Jackson Kent | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| #3 | Junior Caminero | Jack Perkins | 69 | C+ Value |
| #6 | Yordan Alvarez | Michael Wacha | 67 | C+ Value |
| #13 | Pete Alonso | Sean Manaea | 63 | C+ Value |
| #14 | Coby Mayo | Sean Manaea | 62 | C+ Value |
| #21 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Kevin Gausman | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #37 | Fernando Tatís | Kyle Freeland | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #39 | Spencer Torkelson | Braydon Fisher | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #51 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Sean Manaea | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #53 | Drake Baldwin | Kevin Gausman | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #57 | Andrés Chaparro | Cristopher Sánchez | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #66 | Teoscar Hernández | Rhett Lowder | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #74 | Jeremy Peña | Michael Wacha | 49 | D Below |
| #76 | Spencer Jones | Bailey Ober | 49 | D Below |
| #84 | Vinnie Pasquantino | Hunter Brown | 48 | D Below |
| #98 | Cody Bellinger | Bailey Ober | 46 | D Below |
| #104 | Alec Burleson | Blade Tidwell | 46 | D Below |
| #109 | Cole Carrigg | Walker Buehler | 45 | D Below |
| #118 | Brandon Lowe | Jacob Misiorowski | 44 | D Below |
| #120 | Ozzie Albies | Kevin Gausman | 44 | D Below |
| #131 | Hao-Yu Lee | Braydon Fisher | 43 | D Below |
| #135 | Gabriel Moreno | Janson Junk | 42 | D Below |
| #138 | Jo Adell | Chris Murphy | 42 | D Below |
| #147 | Bryce Eldridge | Andre Pallante | 41 | D Below |
| #148 | Jeremiah Jackson | Sean Manaea | 41 | D Below |
| #153 | Travis Bazzana | Chris Murphy | 40 | D Below |
| #164 | Nick Sogard | Jacob deGrom | 39 | D Below |
| #166 | Alex Freeland | Rhett Lowder | 39 | D Below |
| #171 | Josh Lowe | Logan Gilbert | 38 | D Below |
| #185 | Carson Benge | Shane Baz | 37 | D Below |
| #239 | Turner Hill | Andre Pallante | 27 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Drake Baldwin, Andrés Chaparro, Teoscar Hernández, Jeremy Peña, Spencer Jones, Vinnie Pasquantino, Cody Bellinger, Alec Burleson, Cole Carrigg, Brandon Lowe, Ozzie Albies, Hao-Yu Lee, Gabriel Moreno, Jo Adell, Bryce Eldridge, Jeremiah Jackson, Travis Bazzana, Nick Sogard, Alex Freeland, Josh Lowe, Carson Benge, Turner Hill