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15-Day HR Leaders
1 Elly De La Cruz 7 HRs · 2 Corey Seager 5 HRs · 3 Ronald Acuña Jr. 5 HRs · 4 Richie Palacios 5 HRs · 5 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Kyle Schwarber 5 HRs · 8 Nolan Arenado 5 HRs · 9 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 10 Rafael Devers 5 HRs · 11 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 12 Travis Bazzana 5 HRs 1 Elly De La Cruz 7 HRs · 2 Corey Seager 5 HRs · 3 Ronald Acuña Jr. 5 HRs · 4 Richie Palacios 5 HRs · 5 Kazuma Okamoto 5 HRs · 6 Max Muncy 5 HRs · 7 Kyle Schwarber 5 HRs · 8 Nolan Arenado 5 HRs · 9 Pete Alonso 5 HRs · 10 Rafael Devers 5 HRs · 11 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 12 Travis Bazzana 5 HRs

MLB Home Run Predictions — September 16, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-09-16: what the model predicted, what actually happened.

Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 16, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.

21
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
48.3 vs 44.0
Avg score: HR vs miss

Catch rates by cutoff

How many of our top-N picks went yard on 2026-09-16.
Top 5
1/5
20.0%
Top 10
2/10
20.0%
Top 15
2/15
13.3%
Top 25
4/25
16.0%

Home runs, graded

21 home runs by batters the model scored that day, listed by model rank. Low rank = the model called it; high rank = an honest miss.
RankBatterVs pitcherScoreTier
#2 Pete Crow-Armstrong JR Ritchie
Wrigley Field
 76 B AboveAvg
#7 Pete Alonso Xzavion Curry
Citi Field
 65 C+ Value
#18 Elly De La Cruz Blake Snell
Great American Ball Park
 59 C BelowAvg
#19 Willson Contreras MacKenzie Gore
Globe Life Field
 59 C BelowAvg
#39 John Rave Cristian Javier
Minute Maid Park
 55 C BelowAvg
#49 Alex Bregman JR Ritchie
Wrigley Field
 54 C BelowAvg
#68 Oneil Cruz Logan Henderson
PNC Park
 50 C BelowAvg
#73 Samuel Basallo Xzavion Curry
Citi Field
 49 D Below
#74 Nolan Arenado Ryan Gusto
Chase Field
 48 D Below
#79 Brandon Lowe Logan Henderson
PNC Park
 48 D Below
#89 Rafael Flores Jr. Logan Henderson
PNC Park
 47 D Below
#95 Kyle Karros Robbie Ray
Coors Field
 47 D Below
#104 Michael Massey Cristian Javier
Minute Maid Park
 46 D Below
#110 Henry Bolte Nick Martinez
Tropicana Field
 45 D Below
#112 Yainer Diaz Daniel Lynch IV
Minute Maid Park
 45 D Below
#135 Gabriel Moreno Ryan Gusto
Chase Field
 43 D Below
#184 Jakob Marsee Merrill Kelly
Chase Field
 38 D Below
#185 Tommy White Nick Martinez
Tropicana Field
 38 D Below
#198 Ryan Kreidler Carlos Rodón
Target Field
 36 D Below
#216 Petey Halpin Anthony Kay
Progressive Field
 34 D Below
#228 Dane Myers Blake Snell
Great American Ball Park
 32 D Below

Outside the top 50

Batters who homered but sat below our top-50 cut — the misses stay on the page.

Oneil Cruz, Samuel Basallo, Nolan Arenado, Brandon Lowe, Rafael Flores Jr., Kyle Karros, Michael Massey, Henry Bolte, Yainer Diaz, Gabriel Moreno, Jakob Marsee, Tommy White, Ryan Kreidler, Petey Halpin, Dane Myers

← 2026-09-15 Today's predictions
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.
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