MLB Home Run Predictions — July 2, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-02: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 2, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
21
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
44.7 vs 44.7
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #6 | Manny Machado | Roki Sasaki | 68 | C+ Value |
| #9 | Mickey Moniak | Ryan Gusto | 66 | C+ Value |
| #28 | Carter Jensen | Ian Seymour | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #35 | Jackson Merrill | Roki Sasaki | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #40 | Jordan Walker | ATL Bullpen Proxy | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #43 | Garrett Mitchell | Chase Burns | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #45 | Jake McCarthy | Ryan Gusto | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #49 | Sal Stewart | Jacob Misiorowski | 49 | D Below |
| #51 | Endy Rodríguez | Alan Rangel | 49 | D Below |
| #71 | Cedric Mullins | Stephen Kolek | 45 | D Below |
| #73 | Alec Burleson | ATL Bullpen Proxy | 48 | D Below |
| #78 | Elias Díaz | Framber Valdez | 43 | D Below |
| #87 | Hao-Yu Lee | Nathan Eovaldi | 41 | D Below |
| #101 | Colt Keith | Nathan Eovaldi | 37 | D Below |
| #103 | Isaac Collins | Ian Seymour | 37 | D Below |
| #109 | Nathan Church | ATL Bullpen Proxy | 39 | D Below |
| #114 | Jose Trevino | Jacob Misiorowski | 35 | D Below |
| #126 | Nick Gonzales | Alan Rangel | 33 | D Below |
| #130 | TJ Friedl | Jacob Misiorowski | 32 | D Below |
| #135 | Chase Meidroth | Slade Cecconi | 31 | D Below |
| #142 | Brayan Rocchio | Davis Martin | 25 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Endy Rodríguez, Cedric Mullins, Alec Burleson, Elias Díaz, Hao-Yu Lee, Colt Keith, Isaac Collins, Nathan Church, Jose Trevino, Nick Gonzales, TJ Friedl, Chase Meidroth, Brayan Rocchio
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.