MLB Home Run Predictions — July 1, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-01: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 1, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #4 | Hunter Goodman | Max Meyer | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #9 | Junior Caminero | Seth Lugo | 68 | C+ Value |
| #22 | Shea Langeliers | LAD Bullpen Proxy | 66 | C+ Value |
| #27 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Walker Buehler | 60 | C+ Value |
| #28 | Amed Rosario | Troy Melton | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #37 | Mickey Moniak | Max Meyer | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #39 | Kody Clemens | Tatsuya Imai | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #44 | James Wood | Payton Tolle | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #46 | Freddie Freeman | J.T. Ginn | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #48 | Brandon Marsh | Paul Skenes | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #61 | Heliot Ramos | Zac Gallen | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #65 | Henry Davis | Zack Wheeler | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #66 | Michael Conforto | Walker Buehler | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #67 | Dansby Swanson | Walker Buehler | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #77 | Francisco Lindor | Braydon Fisher | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #85 | Sam Antonacci | Dean Kremer | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #88 | Seiya Suzuki | Walker Buehler | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #92 | Carson Benge | Braydon Fisher | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #96 | Michael Busch | Walker Buehler | 49 | D Below |
| #100 | Kyle Karros | Max Meyer | 47 | D Below |
| #101 | Noelvi Marte | Shane Drohan | 47 | D Below |
| #103 | Josh Bell | Tatsuya Imai | 47 | D Below |
| #121 | Tyler O'Neill | Noah Schultz | 45 | D Below |
| #127 | Kevin McGonigle | Will Warren | 44 | D Below |
| #140 | Cedric Mullins | Seth Lugo | 42 | D Below |
| #145 | Leody Taveras | Noah Schultz | 42 | D Below |
| #149 | Trea Turner | Paul Skenes | 41 | D Below |
| #156 | Alec Bohm | Paul Skenes | 40 | D Below |
| #163 | Ozzie Albies | Michael McGreevy | 39 | D Below |
| #175 | Elias Díaz | Joey Cantillo | 38 | D Below |
| #196 | David Fry | MacKenzie Gore | 35 | D Below |
| #205 | Andrés Chaparro | Payton Tolle | 33 | D Below |
| #212 | Luke Keaschall | Tatsuya Imai | 31 | D Below |
| #218 | Austin Hedges | MacKenzie Gore | 27 | D Below |
| #222 | Nasim Nuñez | Payton Tolle | 14 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Heliot Ramos, Henry Davis, Michael Conforto, Dansby Swanson, Francisco Lindor, Sam Antonacci, Seiya Suzuki, Carson Benge, Michael Busch, Kyle Karros, Noelvi Marte, Josh Bell, Tyler O'Neill, Kevin McGonigle, Cedric Mullins, Leody Taveras, Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Ozzie Albies, Elias Díaz, David Fry, Andrés Chaparro, Luke Keaschall, Austin Hedges, Nasim Nuñez