MLB Home Run Predictions — June 30, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-06-30: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for June 30, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
32
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
3/15
Top-15 picks that homered
51.4 vs 45.6
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #6 | Colson Montgomery | Trey Gibson | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #9 | Ben Rice | Tarik Skubal | 69 | C+ Value |
| #12 | Yordan Alvarez | Joe Ryan | 66 | C+ Value |
| #16 | Jake Bauers | Rhett Lowder | 64 | C+ Value |
| #19 | Owen Caissie | Tanner Gordon | 63 | C+ Value |
| #21 | Junior Caminero | Noah Cameron | 62 | C+ Value |
| #26 | Jackson Chourio | Rhett Lowder | 62 | C+ Value |
| #31 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | JP Sears | 60 | C+ Value |
| #32 | Sal Stewart | Brandon Sproat | 60 | C+ Value |
| #41 | Kerry Carpenter | Cam Schlittler | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #44 | Joc Pederson | Tanner Bibee | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #45 | Francisco Alvarez | Kevin Gausman | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #46 | CJ Abrams | Connelly Early | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #50 | Manny Machado | Matthew Boyd | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #56 | Rafael Devers | AZ Bullpen Proxy | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #63 | Carter Jensen | Griffin Jax | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #72 | Spencer Torkelson | Cam Schlittler | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #79 | Dansby Swanson | JP Sears | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #102 | Michael Busch | JP Sears | 48 | D Below |
| #103 | James Outman | Cam Schlittler | 47 | D Below |
| #104 | Ketel Marte | Landen Roupp | 47 | D Below |
| #111 | Riley Greene | Cam Schlittler | 47 | D Below |
| #134 | Trea Turner | Bubba Chandler | 44 | D Below |
| #143 | Nelson Velázquez | Martín Pérez | 42 | D Below |
| #146 | Ryan Vilade | Noah Cameron | 42 | D Below |
| #147 | Kyle Manzardo | Jacob deGrom | 42 | D Below |
| #176 | Luis Torrens | Kevin Gausman | 39 | D Below |
| #183 | Josh Jung | Tanner Bibee | 38 | D Below |
| #185 | Alex Bregman | JP Sears | 38 | D Below |
| #194 | Javier Sanoja | Tanner Gordon | 37 | D Below |
| #205 | Nathan Church | Martín Pérez | 35 | D Below |
| #226 | Luis Arráez | AZ Bullpen Proxy | 28 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Rafael Devers, Carter Jensen, Spencer Torkelson, Dansby Swanson, Michael Busch, James Outman, Ketel Marte, Riley Greene, Trea Turner, Nelson Velázquez, Ryan Vilade, Kyle Manzardo, Luis Torrens, Josh Jung, Alex Bregman, Javier Sanoja, Nathan Church, Luis Arráez
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.