MLB Home Run Predictions — July 3, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-03: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 3, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
28
HRs by scored batters
2/5
Top-5 picks that homered
6/15
Top-15 picks that homered
50.8 vs 44.5
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Ben Rice | Mike Paredes | 73 | B AboveAvg |
| #3 | Junior Caminero | Spencer Arrighetti | 68 | C+ Value |
| #6 | Kody Clemens | Gerrit Cole | 67 | C+ Value |
| #7 | Nick Kurtz | Tyler Phillips | 67 | C+ Value |
| #8 | Yordan Alvarez | Nick Martinez | 66 | C+ Value |
| #13 | Rafael Devers | Ryan Feltner | 63 | C+ Value |
| #18 | Samuel Basallo | Brady Singer | 60 | C+ Value |
| #20 | Owen Caissie | Jack Perkins | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #26 | Miguel Vargas | Gavin Williams | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #29 | Juan Soto | Grant Holmes | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #54 | Matt Olson | Christian Scott | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #63 | Trent Grisham | Mike Paredes | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #67 | Teoscar Hernández | Michael King | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #68 | Kyle Stowers | Jack Perkins | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #75 | Garrett Mitchell | Jose Cabrera | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #81 | Heriberto Hernandez | Jack Perkins | 48 | D Below |
| #87 | Bryan Reynolds | Foster Griffin | 47 | D Below |
| #88 | Nathan Church | David Peterson | 47 | D Below |
| #93 | Jake McCarthy | Logan Webb | 46 | D Below |
| #125 | Jackson Merrill | Shohei Ohtani | 42 | D Below |
| #130 | Ozzie Albies | Christian Scott | 40 | D Below |
| #133 | Ezequiel Tovar | Logan Webb | 40 | D Below |
| #146 | José Tena | Mitch Keller | 38 | D Below |
| #163 | Jakob Marsee | Jack Perkins | 37 | D Below |
| #167 | Daylen Lile | Mitch Keller | 36 | D Below |
| #171 | Caleb Durbin | Reid Detmers | 35 | D Below |
| #176 | Masyn Winn | David Peterson | 35 | D Below |
| #199 | Nick Fortes | Spencer Arrighetti | 30 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Matt Olson, Trent Grisham, Teoscar Hernández, Kyle Stowers, Garrett Mitchell, Heriberto Hernandez, Bryan Reynolds, Nathan Church, Jake McCarthy, Jackson Merrill, Ozzie Albies, Ezequiel Tovar, José Tena, Jakob Marsee, Daylen Lile, Caleb Durbin, Masyn Winn, Nick Fortes
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.