MLB Home Run Predictions — July 4, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-07-04: what the model predicted, what actually happened.

Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 4, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.

HRs by scored batters

0/5

Top-5 picks that homered

3/15

Top-15 picks that homered

48.0 vs 45.7

Avg score: HR vs miss

Catch rates by cutoff

How many of our top-N picks went yard on 2026-07-04.

Top 5

0/5

0.0%

Top 10

1/10

10.0%

Top 15

3/15

20.0%

Top 25

6/25

24.0%

Home runs, graded

35 home runs by batters the model scored that day, listed by model rank. Low rank = the model called it; high rank = an honest miss.

Rank	Batter	Vs pitcher	Score	Tier
#7	Dominic Canzone	Shane Bieber T-Mobile Park	66	C+ Value
#11	Yordan Alvarez	Drew Rasmussen Minute Maid Park	65	C+ Value
#14	Kody Clemens	NYY Bullpen Proxy Yankee Stadium	68	C+ Value
#20	Junior Caminero	Hunter Brown Minute Maid Park	62	C+ Value
#21	Kyle Stowers	Aaron Civale Sutter Health Park	62	C+ Value
#24	Jackson Chourio	Merrill Kelly Chase Field	61	C+ Value
#33	Max Schuemann	Zebby Matthews Yankee Stadium	58	C BelowAvg
#45	Willson Contreras	Sam Aldegheri Angel Stadium	57	C BelowAvg
#46	Samuel Basallo	CIN Bullpen Proxy Great American Ball Park	60	C+ Value
#47	James Wood	Braxton Ashcraft Nationals Park	56	C BelowAvg
#52	Bryce Eldridge	Sean Sullivan Coors Field	56	C BelowAvg
#61	Freddie Freeman	Wandy Peralta Dodger Stadium	54	C BelowAvg
#64	Jasson Domínguez	Zebby Matthews Yankee Stadium	53	C BelowAvg
#74	Otto Lopez	Aaron Civale Sutter Health Park	52	C BelowAvg
#88	Riley Greene	Cal Quantrill Globe Life Field	50	C BelowAvg
#90	Josh Bell	NYY Bullpen Proxy Yankee Stadium	53	C BelowAvg
#93	Colson Montgomery	Parker Messick Progressive Field	49	D Below
#105	Randy Arozarena	Shane Bieber T-Mobile Park	47	D Below
#107	Cal Raleigh	Shane Bieber T-Mobile Park	47	D Below
#108	JJ Wetherholt	Shota Imanaga Wrigley Field	47	D Below
#119	Mark Vientos	Chris Sale Truist Park	44	D Below
#141	Alec Bohm	Michael Wacha Kauffman Stadium	42	D Below
#143	Christian Yelich	Merrill Kelly Chase Field	42	D Below
#153	Trevor Larnach	NYY Bullpen Proxy Yankee Stadium	44	D Below
#159	Josh Lowe	Sonny Gray Angel Stadium	40	D Below
#169	Eli White	Sean Manaea Truist Park	39	D Below
#171	Austin Riley	Sean Manaea Truist Park	39	D Below
#176	Jonny DeLuca	Hunter Brown Minute Maid Park	38	D Below
#185	Mauricio Dubón	Sean Manaea Truist Park	37	D Below
#201	Yainer Diaz	Drew Rasmussen Minute Maid Park	35	D Below
#207	Austin Hedges	Sean Burke Progressive Field	33	D Below
#216	Adrian Del Castillo	Brandon Woodruff Chase Field	32	D Below
#220	Luke Keaschall	NYY Bullpen Proxy Yankee Stadium	34	D Below
#229	Richie Palacios	Hunter Brown Minute Maid Park	28	D Below
#232	Alex Jackson	NYY Bullpen Proxy Yankee Stadium	30	D Below

Outside the top 50

Batters who homered but sat below our top-50 cut — the misses stay on the page.

Bryce Eldridge, Freddie Freeman, Jasson Domínguez, Otto Lopez, Riley Greene, Josh Bell, Colson Montgomery, Randy Arozarena, Cal Raleigh, JJ Wetherholt, Mark Vientos, Alec Bohm, Christian Yelich, Trevor Larnach, Josh Lowe, Eli White, Austin Riley, Jonny DeLuca, Mauricio Dubón, Yainer Diaz, Austin Hedges, Adrian Del Castillo, Luke Keaschall, Richie Palacios, Alex Jackson

The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.

Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.

See plans

MLB Home Run Predictions — July 4, 2026

Catch rates by cutoff

Home runs, graded

Outside the top 50

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.