MLB Home Run Predictions — July 5, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-05: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 5, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
31
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
47.9 vs 45.9
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #14 | Manny Machado | Emmet Sheehan | 66 | C+ Value |
| #15 | Rafael Devers | Tanner Gordon | 65 | C+ Value |
| #19 | Willson Contreras | Ryan Johnson | 62 | C+ Value |
| #29 | Jordan Walker | Javier Assad | 61 | C+ Value |
| #32 | Colson Montgomery | Tanner Bibee | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #35 | Christian Walker | Mason Englert | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #42 | Casey Schmitt | Tanner Gordon | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #47 | Jonah Heim | Eury Pérez | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #51 | Jake Bauers | Eduardo Rodriguez | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #74 | Kyle Karros | Tyler Mahle | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #77 | Spencer Steer | Kyle Bradish | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #78 | Brandon Lowe | Cade Cavalli | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #81 | Zach Neto | Ranger Suarez | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #87 | Drake Baldwin | Nolan McLean | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #94 | Riley Greene | Kumar Rocker | 48 | D Below |
| #97 | Heriberto Hernández | Gage Jump | 47 | D Below |
| #105 | Jarren Duran | Ryan Johnson | 47 | D Below |
| #108 | Isaac Paredes | Mason Englert | 47 | D Below |
| #126 | Otto Lopez | Gage Jump | 44 | D Below |
| #128 | Bryan Reynolds | Cade Cavalli | 43 | D Below |
| #150 | Jake Burger | Casey Mize | 41 | D Below |
| #160 | Tyrone Taylor | Martín Pérez | 40 | D Below |
| #163 | Kyle Teel | Tanner Bibee | 40 | D Below |
| #168 | Dylan Crews | Bubba Chandler | 39 | D Below |
| #172 | Drew Gilbert | Tanner Gordon | 39 | D Below |
| #183 | Tristan Peters | Tanner Bibee | 38 | D Below |
| #186 | Gabriel Arias | Chris Murphy | 38 | D Below |
| #209 | Chase DeLauter | Chris Murphy | 35 | D Below |
| #212 | Leo Jiménez | Gage Jump | 35 | D Below |
| #221 | Mitch Garver | Trey Yesavage | 33 | D Below |
| #222 | Ezequiel Duran | Casey Mize | 33 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Jake Bauers, Kyle Karros, Spencer Steer, Brandon Lowe, Zach Neto, Drake Baldwin, Riley Greene, Heriberto Hernández, Jarren Duran, Isaac Paredes, Otto Lopez, Bryan Reynolds, Jake Burger, Tyrone Taylor, Kyle Teel, Dylan Crews, Drew Gilbert, Tristan Peters, Gabriel Arias, Chase DeLauter, Leo Jiménez, Mitch Garver, Ezequiel Duran
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.