MLB Home Run Predictions — July 6, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-06: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 6, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
20
HRs by scored batters
3/5
Top-5 picks that homered
4/15
Top-15 picks that homered
47.5 vs 43.2
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 | Ben Rice | Griffin Jax | 69 | C+ Value |
| #4 | James Wood | Mike Burrows | 68 | C+ Value |
| #5 | Shohei Ohtani | Kyle Freeland | 68 | C+ Value |
| #13 | Matt Olson | Freddy Peralta | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #19 | Juan Soto | Reynaldo López | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #20 | Curtis Mead | Mike Burrows | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #26 | CJ Abrams | Mike Burrows | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #29 | Ezequiel Tovar | Eric Lauer | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #57 | Heliot Ramos | Kevin Gausman | 43 | D Below |
| #62 | Kazuma Okamoto | Landen Roupp | 42 | D Below |
| #68 | Yainer Diaz | Miles Mikolas | 41 | D Below |
| #69 | Brice Matthews | Miles Mikolas | 41 | D Below |
| #73 | Carson Benge | Reynaldo López | 41 | D Below |
| #76 | Jose Altuve | Miles Mikolas | 40 | D Below |
| #80 | José Caballero | Griffin Jax | 40 | D Below |
| #81 | Salvador Perez | Cristopher Sánchez | 40 | D Below |
| #86 | Nolan Arenado | Walker Buehler | 39 | D Below |
| #99 | Lane Thomas | Cristopher Sánchez | 34 | D Below |
| #103 | Tyler Tolbert | Cristopher Sánchez | 32 | D Below |
| #106 | Geraldo Perdomo | Walker Buehler | 31 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Heliot Ramos, Kazuma Okamoto, Yainer Diaz, Brice Matthews, Carson Benge, Jose Altuve, José Caballero, Salvador Perez, Nolan Arenado, Lane Thomas, Tyler Tolbert, Geraldo Perdomo
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.