MLB Home Run Predictions — July 28, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-28: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 28, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
23
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
5/15
Top-15 picks that homered
51.7 vs 42.4
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2 | Max Muncy | Luis Castillo | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #9 | Shohei Ohtani | Luis Castillo | 66 | C+ Value |
| #10 | Sal Stewart | Gavin Williams | 65 | C+ Value |
| #12 | Sal Stewart | Slade Cecconi | 64 | C+ Value |
| #13 | Yordan Álvarez | Reid Detmers | 64 | C+ Value |
| #18 | Dominic Canzone | Justin Wrobleski | 62 | C+ Value |
| #23 | Jj Bleday | Gavin Williams | 61 | C+ Value |
| #24 | JJ Bleday | Slade Cecconi | 61 | C+ Value |
| #58 | Kyle Stowers | Aaron Nola | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #59 | Dylan Crews | Shane Bieber | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #60 | Kyle Manzardo | Chase Burns | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #62 | Kyle Manzardo | Caleb Ferguson | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #65 | Mickey Moniak | Michael King | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #71 | Julio Rodríguez | Justin Wrobleski | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #75 | Brandon Lowe | Brandon Pfaadt | 49 | D Below |
| #90 | Christian Walker | Reid Detmers | 47 | D Below |
| #93 | Cal Raleigh | Justin Wrobleski | 47 | D Below |
| #112 | Bryce Eldridge | Logan Henderson | 44 | D Below |
| #120 | Bryan Reynolds | Brandon Pfaadt | 44 | D Below |
| #153 | George Springer | Cade Cavalli | 40 | D Below |
| #213 | Chase Meidroth | Gerrit Cole | 34 | D Below |
| #221 | Austin Wynns | Griffin Jax | 33 | D Below |
| #228 | Gleyber Torres | Dean Kremer | 32 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Kyle Stowers, Dylan Crews, Kyle Manzardo, Kyle Manzardo, Mickey Moniak, Julio Rodríguez, Brandon Lowe, Christian Walker, Cal Raleigh, Bryce Eldridge, Bryan Reynolds, George Springer, Chase Meidroth, Austin Wynns, Gleyber Torres
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.