7
HRs allowed
10.4%
HR rate (pool)
9.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.56
FIP
4.09
xFIP
-0.53
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
21
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 21th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
13.4%
Hard-Hit% allowed
71.9%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.9 EV · 394 ft
max EV allowed 115.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Daniel Lynch IV.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
30.8%
82.4
6.5°
2
-1.6
Changeup Offspeed
25.1%
82.7
7.7°
1
-1.7
Slider Breaking
19.4%
84.3
9.1°
1
-3.1
Fastball Hard
15.7%
86.2
36.7°
2
+2.9
Knuckle Curve Breaking
9.1%
85.3
10.2°
0
-1.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups67
HRs allowed (pool)7
Pool HR rate10.4%
Pool HR/game day0.88
Top-15 matchups3
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB9.6% 21
HR/9—
FIP3.56 29
xFIP4.09
FIP − xFIP-0.53 15
Barrel% allowed13.4%
Hard-Hit% allowed71.9%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-09-21
Sinker
Hard · 30.8% usage
-1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle6.5°
HRs allowed2
Pitches359
Changeup
Offspeed · 25.1% usage
-1.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.7 mph
Avg launch angle7.7°
HRs allowed1
Pitches293
Slider
Breaking · 19.4% usage
-3.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.3 mph
Avg launch angle9.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches226
Fastball
Hard · 15.7% usage
+2.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.2 mph
Avg launch angle36.7°
HRs allowed2
Pitches183
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 9.1% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.3 mph
Avg launch angle10.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches106
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Daniel Lynch IV.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
7 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.9 EV · 394 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 8 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-16
9
1
110.7
2026-09-09
9
1
110.2
2026-09-04
8
0
115.8
2026-08-29
8
1
102.8
2026-08-23
8
1
103.1
2026-08-18
9
0
106.2
2026-08-12
7
2
109.5
2026-08-07
9
1
103.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Daniel Lynch IV isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Daniel Lynch IV isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
43
3
7%
7
2
29%
9
1
11%
8
1
12%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Daniel Lynch IV
How many home runs has Daniel Lynch IV allowed this season?
Daniel Lynch IV has allowed 7 home runs across 8 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Daniel Lynch IV?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Daniel Lynch IV include Angel Martínez (1), Elly De La Cruz (1), Heliot Ramos (1) and 9 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.