0
HRs allowed
0%
HR rate (pool)
6.7%
Overall HR/FB
3.11
FIP
3.9
xFIP
#29
Leakiest SP today (of 30, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
8
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 8th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
—
Hard-Hit% allowed
—
Fly-ball rate
—
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
Not enough scored game days for a trend line yet.
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 45.0%
BRK 30.6%
OFF 24.4%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 1
Long shots · 8 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (45.0% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
6 of 9 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
28.9%
81.7
6.8°
0
-3.6
Changeup Offspeed
24.4%
83.0
8.3°
0
-2.9
Slider Breaking
23.7%
83.6
3.9°
1
-2.4
Fastball Hard
16.1%
83.6
33.8°
1
+2.7
Knuckle Curve Breaking
6.9%
87.7
13.6°
0
-1.2
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups0
HRs allowed (pool)0
Pool HR rate0%
Pool HR/game day—
Top-15 matchups0
HRs to top-150
Overall HR/FB6.7% 8
HR/9—
FIP3.11 17
xFIP3.9
FIP − xFIP—
Barrel% allowed—
Hard-Hit% allowed—
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-07
Sinker
Hard · 28.9% usage
-3.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.7 mph
Avg launch angle6.8°
HRs allowed0
Pitches201
Changeup
Offspeed · 24.4% usage
-2.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.0 mph
Avg launch angle8.3°
HRs allowed0
Pitches170
Slider
Breaking · 23.7% usage
-2.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.6 mph
Avg launch angle3.9°
HRs allowed1
Pitches165
Fastball
Hard · 16.1% usage
+2.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.6 mph
Avg launch angle33.8°
HRs allowed1
Pitches112
Knuckle Curve
Breaking · 6.9% usage
-1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.7 mph
Avg launch angle13.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches48
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
0 allowed · scored pool
No home runs allowed in our scored matchups.
Game-day log
last 0 scored game days · pool
No scored game days yet for Daniel Lynch IV.
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Kauffman Stadium
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
1.000
Wind
8 mph from SSE
Temp
81°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
7:10p
8
81°
+3
8:10p
7
80°
+4
9:10p
6
78°
+4
10:10p
5
77°
+4
11:10p
7
76°
+6
+4
Neutral alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 6 mph from SSE
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
320ft
short
CF
400ft
avg
RF
320ft
short
vs LHH → RF
356ft
0 HRs allowed
vs RHH → LF
355ft
0 HRs allowed
Shortest: LF 320 ft
Fences reportedly moved in ~10 ft for 2026 — verify
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
No scored matchups by venue yet for Daniel Lynch IV.