16
HRs allowed
11.0%
HR rate (pool)
18.9%
Overall HR/FB
5.3
FIP
4.45
xFIP
+0.85
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
86
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Vulnerability 86th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
75.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 105.1 EV · 394 ft
max EV allowed 112.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 1 HR
30D · 6 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Matthew Liberatore.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
31.9%
85.6
31.1°
5
+0.1
Slider Breaking
23.0%
83.2
12.0°
7
+0.6
Curveball Breaking
16.8%
82.2
-3.5°
3
+1.0
Changeup Offspeed
15.0%
81.2
10.0°
0
-1.2
Sinker Hard
8.8%
89.3
21.5°
1
+3.6
Cutter Hard
4.1%
83.6
5.2°
1
+5.7
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups145
HRs allowed (pool)16
Pool HR rate11.0%
Pool HR/game day0.94
Top-15 matchups7
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB18.9% 86
HR/9—
FIP5.3 85
xFIP4.45
FIP − xFIP+0.85 86
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed75.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-15
Fastball
Hard · 31.9% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.6 mph
Avg launch angle31.1°
HRs allowed5
Pitches518
Slider
Breaking · 23.0% usage
+0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.2 mph
Avg launch angle12.0°
HRs allowed7
Pitches373
Curveball
Breaking · 16.8% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.2 mph
Avg launch angle-3.5°
HRs allowed3
Pitches273
Changeup
Offspeed · 15.0% usage
-1.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.2 mph
Avg launch angle10.0°
HRs allowed0
Pitches243
Sinker
Hard · 8.8% usage
+3.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against89.3 mph
Avg launch angle21.5°
HRs allowed1
Pitches143
Cutter
Hard · 4.1% usage
+5.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.6 mph
Avg launch angle5.2°
HRs allowed1
Pitches66
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Matthew Liberatore.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
16 allowed · scored pool
avg 105.1 EV · 394 ft
6 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-11
8
1
105.9
2026-07-05
8
0
102.5
2026-06-30
8
0
107.7
2026-06-24
7
1
109.6
2026-06-18
7
1
110.0
2026-06-13
9
3
107.1
2026-06-06
8
1
106.2
2026-05-31
9
1
109.6
2026-05-25
9
1
103.6
2026-05-19
9
0
108.6
2026-05-13
9
1
107.4
2026-05-07
9
0
112.0
2026-05-01
9
0
109.2
2026-04-25
9
2
110.2
2026-04-19
9
1
108.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Matthew Liberatore isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.