MLB Home Run Predictions — August 25, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-25: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 25, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
27
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
3/15
Top-15 picks that homered
46.8 vs 42.2
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #10 | Hunter Goodman | Andrew Alvarez | 63 | C+ Value |
| #12 | Luis García Jr. | HOU Bullpen Proxy | 65 | C+ Value |
| #15 | Oneil Cruz | Michael King | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #21 | Pete Alonso | Matthew Liberatore | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #24 | Jake Burger | Anthony Kay | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #33 | Cal Raleigh | Aaron Nola | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #35 | Rafael Devers | Brady Singer | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #38 | Justin Foscue | Anthony Kay | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #48 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Matthew Liberatore | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #53 | Ian Happ | Brandon Pfaadt | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #65 | Heriberto Hernández | Payton Tolle | 48 | D Below |
| #66 | Jeremy Peña | Will Warren | 48 | D Below |
| #78 | Sal Stewart | Adrian Houser | 46 | D Below |
| #79 | Tristan Peters | Jacob deGrom | 46 | D Below |
| #84 | Daylen Lile | COL Bullpen Proxy | 49 | D Below |
| #87 | Luis Robert Jr. | Kyle Harrison | 45 | D Below |
| #92 | Carlos Cortes | Taj Bradley | 45 | D Below |
| #108 | Francisco Lindor | Kyle Harrison | 43 | D Below |
| #119 | Yainer Diaz | Will Warren | 42 | D Below |
| #126 | Mickey Gasper | Tyler Phillips | 41 | D Below |
| #127 | Danny Jansen | Anthony Kay | 41 | D Below |
| #133 | Cody Bellinger | HOU Bullpen Proxy | 44 | D Below |
| #138 | Jarren Duran | Tyler Phillips | 40 | D Below |
| #188 | Vaughn Grissom | Gavin Williams | 33 | D Below |
| #202 | Nathan Church | Chris Bassitt | 31 | D Below |
| #209 | Ryan Waldschmidt | Clay Holmes | 30 | D Below |
| #212 | Max Clark | Casey Legumina | 29 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Ian Happ, Heriberto Hernández, Jeremy Peña, Sal Stewart, Tristan Peters, Daylen Lile, Luis Robert Jr., Carlos Cortes, Francisco Lindor, Yainer Diaz, Mickey Gasper, Danny Jansen, Cody Bellinger, Jarren Duran, Vaughn Grissom, Nathan Church, Ryan Waldschmidt, Max Clark
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.