MLB Home Run Predictions — August 26, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-26: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 26, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
28
HRs by scored batters
3/5
Top-5 picks that homered
6/15
Top-15 picks that homered
47.9 vs 41.0
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Hunter Goodman | Matt Waldron | 69 | C+ Value |
| #3 | Matt Olson | Roki Sasaki | 69 | C+ Value |
| #4 | Kyle Schwarber | Bryan Woo | 67 | C+ Value |
| #9 | Ben Rice | Peter Lambert | 64 | C+ Value |
| #10 | Andrés Chaparro | Tanner Gordon | 63 | C+ Value |
| #15 | Luis García Jr. | Peter Lambert | 61 | C+ Value |
| #19 | Pete Alonso | Michael McGreevy | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #24 | Joc Pederson | Sean Burke | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #27 | Bryce Harper | Bryan Woo | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #28 | Rafael Devers | Nick Lodolo | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #34 | Brooks Lee | J.T. Ginn | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #56 | Lawrence Butler | Connor Prielipp | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #63 | Tristan Peters | MacKenzie Gore | 48 | D Below |
| #74 | Trevor Larnach | J.T. Ginn | 46 | D Below |
| #95 | Jonah Cox | Nick Lodolo | 44 | D Below |
| #96 | Cole Carrigg | Matt Waldron | 44 | D Below |
| #108 | Brice Turang | Robert Stock | 43 | D Below |
| #114 | Connor Norby | Matt Waldron | 42 | D Below |
| #126 | Jordan Lawlar | Matthew Boyd | 41 | D Below |
| #134 | Daulton Varsho | Elmer Rodríguez | 41 | D Below |
| #156 | Tommy Edman | AJ Smith-Shawver | 39 | D Below |
| #158 | Eugenio Suárez | Logan Webb | 38 | D Below |
| #175 | Troy Johnston | Matt Waldron | 36 | D Below |
| #177 | Brenton Doyle | MacKenzie Gore | 36 | D Below |
| #185 | Nolan Gorman | Kyle Bradish | 35 | D Below |
| #224 | Leody Taveras | Michael McGreevy | 31 | D Below |
| #228 | Nathan Lukes | Randy Dobnak | 29 | D Below |
| #229 | Sean Murphy | Roki Sasaki | 29 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Lawrence Butler, Tristan Peters, Trevor Larnach, Jonah Cox, Cole Carrigg, Brice Turang, Connor Norby, Jordan Lawlar, Daulton Varsho, Tommy Edman, Eugenio Suárez, Troy Johnston, Brenton Doyle, Nolan Gorman, Leody Taveras, Nathan Lukes, Sean Murphy
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.