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1 Esmerlyn Valdez 6 HRs · 2 Eugenio Suárez 5 HRs · 3 Elly De La Cruz 4 HRs · 4 Cole Young 4 HRs · 5 Willy Adames 4 HRs · 6 Wilyer Abreu 4 HRs · 7 Junior Caminero 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Joey Ortiz 4 HRs · 10 Ty France 4 HRs · 11 Shohei Ohtani 3 HRs · 12 Shea Langeliers 3 HRs 1 Esmerlyn Valdez 6 HRs · 2 Eugenio Suárez 5 HRs · 3 Elly De La Cruz 4 HRs · 4 Cole Young 4 HRs · 5 Willy Adames 4 HRs · 6 Wilyer Abreu 4 HRs · 7 Junior Caminero 4 HRs · 8 James Wood 4 HRs · 9 Joey Ortiz 4 HRs · 10 Ty France 4 HRs · 11 Shohei Ohtani 3 HRs · 12 Shea Langeliers 3 HRs

MLB Home Run Predictions — July 21, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-07-21: what the model predicted, what actually happened.

Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 21, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.

22
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
50.5 vs 45.6
Avg score: HR vs miss

Catch rates by cutoff

How many of our top-N picks went yard on 2026-07-21.
Top 5
0/5
0.0%
Top 10
2/10
20.0%
Top 15
2/15
13.3%
Top 25
6/25
24.0%

Home runs, graded

22 home runs by batters the model scored that day, listed by model rank. Low rank = the model called it; high rank = an honest miss.
RankBatterVs pitcherScoreTier
#6 Hunter Goodman Carson Palmquist
Coors Field
 71 B AboveAvg
#7 Cj Abrams Michael Lorenzen
Coors Field
 68 C+ Value
#16 Dillon Dingler David Peterson
Wrigley Field
 61 C+ Value
#17 Manny Machado Reynaldo López
Truist Park
 60 C+ Value
#18 Mickey Moniak Carson Palmquist
Coors Field
 60 C+ Value
#23 Max Muncy Zack Wheeler
Citizens Bank Park
 58 C BelowAvg
#26 Shea Langeliers AZ Bullpen Proxy
Chase Field
 61 C+ Value
#42 Ryan Jeffers Parker Messick
Progressive Field
 55 C BelowAvg
#49 Wyatt Langford Noah Schultz
Globe Life Field
 54 C BelowAvg
#50 Elly De La Cruz Luis Castillo
T-Mobile Park
 54 C BelowAvg
#85 Nathaniel Lowe Luis Castillo
T-Mobile Park
 49 D Below
#93 Jackson Merrill Reynaldo López
Truist Park
 49 D Below
#101 Carter Jensen Tyler Mahle
Kauffman Stadium
 48 D Below
#104 Brandon Nimmo Noah Schultz
Globe Life Field
 48 D Below
#106 Jo Adell Matthew Liberatore
Angel Stadium
 47 D Below
#121 Eugenio Suárez Luis Castillo
T-Mobile Park
 45 D Below
#136 Yandy Díaz Kevin Gausman
Rogers Centre
 44 D Below
#155 Isaac Paredes Tyler Phillips
Minute Maid Park
 42 D Below
#174 Jeremy Peña Tyler Phillips
Minute Maid Park
 40 D Below
#193 Julio Rodríguez Chase Burns
T-Mobile Park
 38 D Below
#220 Nick Fortes Kevin Gausman
Rogers Centre
 32 D Below
#237 Jacob Wilson AZ Bullpen Proxy
Chase Field
 28 D Below

Outside the top 50

Batters who homered but sat below our top-50 cut — the misses stay on the page.

Nathaniel Lowe, Jackson Merrill, Carter Jensen, Brandon Nimmo, Jo Adell, Eugenio Suárez, Yandy Díaz, Isaac Paredes, Jeremy Peña, Julio Rodríguez, Nick Fortes, Jacob Wilson

← 2026-07-20 Today's predictions
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.
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