MLB Home Run Predictions — July 22, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-07-22: what the model predicted, what actually happened.

Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 22, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.

HRs by scored batters

0/5

Top-5 picks that homered

4/15

Top-15 picks that homered

45.4 vs 44.6

Avg score: HR vs miss

Catch rates by cutoff

How many of our top-N picks went yard on 2026-07-22.

Top 5

0/5

0.0%

Top 10

3/10

30.0%

Top 15

4/15

26.7%

Top 25

5/25

20.0%

Home runs, graded

34 home runs by batters the model scored that day, listed by model rank. Low rank = the model called it; high rank = an honest miss.

Rank	Batter	Vs pitcher	Score	Tier
#6	Ben Rice	Mitch Keller Yankee Stadium	70	B AboveAvg
#7	Ben Rice	Bubba Chandler Yankee Stadium	70	B AboveAvg
#8	Yordan Alvarez	Sandy Alcantara Minute Maid Park	70	B AboveAvg
#11	Max Muncy	Aaron Nola Citizens Bank Park	69	C+ Value
#23	Spencer Torkelson	Colin Rea Wrigley Field	60	C+ Value
#29	Dalton Rushing	Aaron Nola Citizens Bank Park	58	C BelowAvg
#49	JJ Bleday	Emerson Hancock T-Mobile Park	53	C BelowAvg
#58	Seiya Suzuki	Keider Montero Wrigley Field	52	C BelowAvg
#61	Jackson Merrill	Martín Pérez Truist Park	52	C BelowAvg
#69	Alec Bohm	Eric Lauer Citizens Bank Park	52	C BelowAvg
#70	Sal Stewart	Emerson Hancock T-Mobile Park	51	C BelowAvg
#73	Casey Schmitt	Seth Lugo Kauffman Stadium	51	C BelowAvg
#136	Jacob Gonzalez	Gerrit Cole Yankee Stadium	44	D Below
#142	Corbin Carroll	Gage Jump Chase Field	44	D Below
#145	Hao-Yu Lee	Colin Rea Wrigley Field	44	D Below
#148	Jeremy Peña	Sandy Alcantara Minute Maid Park	43	D Below
#157	Kyle Manzardo	Bailey Ober Progressive Field	43	D Below
#166	Isaac Paredes	Sandy Alcantara Minute Maid Park	42	D Below
#169	Ceddanne Rafaela	Dean Kremer Fenway Park	42	D Below
#178	Nolan Arenado	Gage Jump Chase Field	40	D Below
#182	Brooks Lee	Slade Cecconi Progressive Field	40	D Below
#185	Trevor Larnach	Slade Cecconi Progressive Field	40	D Below
#188	Salvador Perez	Landen Roupp Kauffman Stadium	39	D Below
#200	Ceddanne Rafaela	Kyle Bradish Fenway Park	38	D Below
#205	JJ Wetherholt	Reid Detmers Angel Stadium	38	D Below
#207	Brett Baty	Logan Henderson American Family Field	37	D Below
#209	Marcus Semien	Logan Henderson American Family Field	37	D Below
#224	Luis Rengifo	Martín Pérez Truist Park	36	D Below
#230	Nick Gonzales	Gerrit Cole Yankee Stadium	35	D Below
#234	James McCann	Gage Jump Chase Field	35	D Below
#245	Gabriel Moreno	Gage Jump Chase Field	32	D Below
#259	Nick Gonzales	Max Fried Yankee Stadium	30	D Below
#264	Ryan Waldschmidt	Gage Jump Chase Field	28	D Below
#267	Jeff McNeil	Merrill Kelly Chase Field	27	D Below

Outside the top 50

Batters who homered but sat below our top-50 cut — the misses stay on the page.

Seiya Suzuki, Jackson Merrill, Alec Bohm, Sal Stewart, Casey Schmitt, Jacob Gonzalez, Corbin Carroll, Hao-Yu Lee, Jeremy Peña, Kyle Manzardo, Isaac Paredes, Ceddanne Rafaela, Nolan Arenado, Brooks Lee, Trevor Larnach, Salvador Perez, Ceddanne Rafaela, JJ Wetherholt, Brett Baty, Marcus Semien, Luis Rengifo, Nick Gonzales, James McCann, Gabriel Moreno, Nick Gonzales, Ryan Waldschmidt, Jeff McNeil

The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.

Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.

See plans

MLB Home Run Predictions — July 22, 2026

Catch rates by cutoff

Home runs, graded

Outside the top 50

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.