2026

MLB Home Run Predictions — July 23, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-07-23: what the model predicted, what actually happened.

Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 23, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.

7
HRs by scored batters
2/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
45.0 vs 40.9
Avg score: HR vs miss

Catch rates by cutoff

Top 5
2/5
40.0%
Top 10
2/10
20.0%
Top 15
2/15
13.3%
Top 25
3/25
12.0%

Home runs, graded

RankBatterVs pitcherScoreTier
#3 Drake Baldwin Kyle Hart
Truist Park
64 C+ Value
#4 Ty France Chris Sale
Truist Park
64 C+ Value
#19 Ozzie Albies Kyle Hart
Truist Park
48 D Below
#32 Dominic Smith Kyle Hart
Truist Park
43 D Below
#51 Patrick Bailey Taj Bradley
Progressive Field
38 D Below
#71 James Outman Randy Dobnak
Comerica Park
31 D Below
#79 Isaac Collins Troy Melton
Comerica Park
27 D Below

Outside the top 50

Patrick Bailey, James Outman, Isaac Collins

The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.
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