MLB Home Run Predictions — July 24, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-24: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 24, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
23
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
46.4 vs 41.7
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #11 | Matt Olson | Trevor Rogers | 64 | C+ Value |
| #12 | Drake Baldwin | Trevor Rogers | 63 | C+ Value |
| #29 | Paul Goldschmidt | Jesús Luzardo | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #32 | Francisco Alvarez | Roki Sasaki | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #37 | Brice Turang | Tomoyuki Sugano | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #43 | Heriberto Hernández | Germán Márquez | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #44 | Rafael Devers | Grayson Rodriguez | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #55 | Casey Schmitt | Grayson Rodriguez | 49 | D Below |
| #57 | Joe Mack | Germán Márquez | 49 | D Below |
| #65 | Kazuma Okamoto | Patrick Sandoval | 49 | D Below |
| #67 | Wyatt Langford | Bryce Miller | 48 | D Below |
| #75 | Dylan Crews | Eduardo Rodriguez | 46 | D Below |
| #76 | Ryan Vilade | Joey Cantillo | 46 | D Below |
| #77 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Jared Jones | 46 | D Below |
| #90 | Jake Burger | Bryce Miller | 45 | D Below |
| #101 | Eugenio Suárez | Dustin May | 44 | D Below |
| #111 | Christian Yelich | Tomoyuki Sugano | 44 | D Below |
| #157 | Cam Smith | Davis Martin | 39 | D Below |
| #174 | Ceddanne Rafaela | Trey Yesavage | 37 | D Below |
| #178 | Austin Hedges | Shane McClanahan | 37 | D Below |
| #192 | Kyle Tucker | Sean Manaea | 35 | D Below |
| #204 | Anthony Seigler | Trey Yesavage | 33 | D Below |
| #224 | Vaughn Grissom | Logan Webb | 29 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Casey Schmitt, Joe Mack, Kazuma Okamoto, Wyatt Langford, Dylan Crews, Ryan Vilade, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Jake Burger, Eugenio Suárez, Christian Yelich, Cam Smith, Ceddanne Rafaela, Austin Hedges, Kyle Tucker, Anthony Seigler, Vaughn Grissom
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.