MLB Home Run Predictions — July 20, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-07-20: what the model predicted, what actually happened.

Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 20, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.

HRs by scored batters

1/5

Top-5 picks that homered

4/15

Top-15 picks that homered

47.7 vs 45.2

Avg score: HR vs miss

Catch rates by cutoff

How many of our top-N picks went yard on 2026-07-20.

Top 5

1/5

20.0%

Top 10

2/10

20.0%

Top 15

4/15

26.7%

Top 25

6/25

24.0%

Home runs, graded

39 home runs by batters the model scored that day, listed by model rank. Low rank = the model called it; high rank = an honest miss.

Rank	Batter	Vs pitcher	Score	Tier
#3	Esmerlyn Valdez	Ryan Weathers Yankee Stadium	77	B AboveAvg
#6	Yordan Alvarez	Janson Junk Minute Maid Park	70	B AboveAvg
#11	Cj Abrams	Kyle Freeland Coors Field	66	C+ Value
#15	Dillon Dingler	Jameson Taillon Wrigley Field	64	C+ Value
#18	Ty France	Bryce Elder Truist Park	62	C+ Value
#20	Bryce Harper	Emmet Sheehan Citizens Bank Park	61	C+ Value
#27	Joc Pederson	Erick Fedde Globe Life Field	58	C BelowAvg
#31	Manny Machado	Bryce Elder Truist Park	57	C BelowAvg
#33	Riley Greene	Jameson Taillon Wrigley Field	57	C BelowAvg
#55	Brandon Marsh	Emmet Sheehan Citizens Bank Park	53	C BelowAvg
#58	Willy Adames	Michael Wacha Kauffman Stadium	52	C BelowAvg
#62	Ian Happ	Jack Flaherty Wrigley Field	52	C BelowAvg
#68	Ketel Marte	Jeffrey Springs Chase Field	51	C BelowAvg
#73	Seiya Suzuki	Jack Flaherty Wrigley Field	50	C BelowAvg
#74	Rhys Hoskins	Joe Ryan Progressive Field	50	C BelowAvg
#80	Heliot Ramos	Michael Wacha Kauffman Stadium	49	D Below
#83	Jake Burger	Erick Fedde Globe Life Field	49	D Below
#84	Trea Turner	Emmet Sheehan Citizens Bank Park	49	D Below
#88	Jacob Young	Kyle Freeland Coors Field	49	D Below
#101	Ozzie Albies	JP Sears Truist Park	47	D Below
#115	Mookie Betts	Cristopher Sánchez Citizens Bank Park	46	D Below
#117	Michael Busch	Jack Flaherty Wrigley Field	46	D Below
#126	Travis Bazzana	Joe Ryan Progressive Field	44	D Below
#127	Jo Adell	Kyle Leahy Angel Stadium	44	D Below
#130	Salvador Perez	Trevor McDonald Kauffman Stadium	44	D Below
#131	Joe Mack	HOU Bullpen Proxy Minute Maid Park	47	D Below
#158	Andrew Vaughn	Freddy Peralta American Family Field	41	D Below
#178	Jeremy Peña	Janson Junk Minute Maid Park	39	D Below
#181	Cal Raleigh	Andrew Abbott T-Mobile Park	39	D Below
#188	Liam Hicks	HOU Bullpen Proxy Minute Maid Park	41	D Below
#191	Caleb Durbin	Shane Baz Fenway Park	37	D Below
#192	Joey Ortiz	Freddy Peralta American Family Field	37	D Below
#198	Patrick Bailey	Joe Ryan Progressive Field	36	D Below
#199	Brayan Rocchio	Joe Ryan Progressive Field	36	D Below
#207	Cedric Mullins	Dylan Cease Rogers Centre	35	D Below
#212	Cooper Pratt	Freddy Peralta American Family Field	35	D Below
#216	Petey Halpin	Joe Ryan Progressive Field	34	D Below
#232	Jacob Wilson	Mitch Bratt Chase Field	31	D Below
#238	Nick Fortes	Dylan Cease Rogers Centre	25	D Below

Outside the top 50

Batters who homered but sat below our top-50 cut — the misses stay on the page.

Brandon Marsh, Willy Adames, Ian Happ, Ketel Marte, Seiya Suzuki, Rhys Hoskins, Heliot Ramos, Jake Burger, Trea Turner, Jacob Young, Ozzie Albies, Mookie Betts, Michael Busch, Travis Bazzana, Jo Adell, Salvador Perez, Joe Mack, Andrew Vaughn, Jeremy Peña, Cal Raleigh, Liam Hicks, Caleb Durbin, Joey Ortiz, Patrick Bailey, Brayan Rocchio, Cedric Mullins, Cooper Pratt, Petey Halpin, Jacob Wilson, Nick Fortes

The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.

Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.

See plans

MLB Home Run Predictions — July 20, 2026

Catch rates by cutoff

Home runs, graded

Outside the top 50

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.