MLB Home Run Predictions — June 24, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-06-24: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for June 24, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #10 | Max Muncy | Joe Ryan | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #14 | Jake Bauers | Rhett Lowder | 67 | C+ Value |
| #22 | Jorge Soler | Trey Gibson | 65 | C+ Value |
| #24 | Curtis Mead | Aaron Nola | 64 | C+ Value |
| #46 | Spencer Steer | Shane Drohan | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #48 | Joc Pederson | Eury Pérez | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #49 | Paul Goldschmidt | Tarik Skubal | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #50 | Wyatt Langford | Eury Pérez | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #55 | Mark Vientos | Shota Imanaga | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #78 | Samuel Basallo | José Soriano | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #91 | Ketel Marte | Matthew Liberatore | 49 | D Below |
| #96 | Jared Young | Javier Assad | 48 | D Below |
| #100 | Francisco Alvarez | Javier Assad | 48 | D Below |
| #101 | Ty France | Martín Pérez | 47 | D Below |
| #107 | Mookie Betts | Joe Ryan | 47 | D Below |
| #113 | Francisco Álvarez | Shota Imanaga | 46 | D Below |
| #115 | Andruw Monasterio | Kyle Freeland | 46 | D Below |
| #118 | Bo Bichette | Shota Imanaga | 45 | D Below |
| #123 | William Contreras | Rhett Lowder | 45 | D Below |
| #129 | Michael Busch | Sean Manaea | 44 | D Below |
| #149 | Dansby Swanson | Sean Manaea | 41 | D Below |
| #152 | Bo Bichette | Javier Assad | 41 | D Below |
| #153 | Michael Busch | Nolan McLean | 41 | D Below |
| #167 | Dansby Swanson | Nolan McLean | 39 | D Below |
| #170 | Connor Wong | Kyle Freeland | 39 | D Below |
| #172 | Jasson Domínguez | Tarik Skubal | 38 | D Below |
| #180 | Nathan Lukes | Mike Burrows | 37 | D Below |
| #185 | Otto Lopez | Jacob deGrom | 36 | D Below |
| #189 | Rafael Devers | Gage Jump | 35 | D Below |
| #206 | A. J. Ewing | Shota Imanaga | 33 | D Below |
| #248 | José Fermín | AZ Bullpen Proxy | 17 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Mark Vientos, Samuel Basallo, Ketel Marte, Jared Young, Francisco Alvarez, Ty France, Mookie Betts, Francisco Álvarez, Andruw Monasterio, Bo Bichette, William Contreras, Michael Busch, Dansby Swanson, Bo Bichette, Michael Busch, Dansby Swanson, Connor Wong, Jasson Domínguez, Nathan Lukes, Otto Lopez, Rafael Devers, A. J. Ewing, José Fermín