MLB Home Run Predictions — June 23, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-06-23: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for June 23, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #11 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Kodai Senga | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #41 | Wilyer Abreu | Sean Sullivan | 60 | C+ Value |
| #49 | Owen Caissie | Cal Quantrill | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #50 | Jac Caglianone | Shane McClanahan | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #62 | Junior Caminero | Luinder Avila | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #71 | Cam Smith | TOR Bullpen Proxy | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #72 | Miguel Vargas | Parker Messick | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #81 | Daulton Varsho | Peter Lambert | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #91 | Brandon Marsh | PJ Poulin | 49 | D Below |
| #95 | Francisco Alvarez | Edward Cabrera | 49 | D Below |
| #98 | Brooks Lee | Justin Wrobleski | 48 | D Below |
| #99 | Joc Pederson | Sandy Alcantara | 48 | D Below |
| #105 | Bo Bichette | Edward Cabrera | 46 | D Below |
| #117 | Heriberto Hernández | Cal Quantrill | 44 | D Below |
| #118 | Joe Mack | Cal Quantrill | 44 | D Below |
| #119 | Dansby Swanson | Kodai Senga | 44 | D Below |
| #123 | Bryson Stott | PJ Poulin | 43 | D Below |
| #127 | Ezequiel Tovar | Sonny Gray | 43 | D Below |
| #146 | Willi Castro | Sonny Gray | 40 | D Below |
| #147 | Brandon Nimmo | Sandy Alcantara | 40 | D Below |
| #148 | Nick Loftin | Shane McClanahan | 40 | D Below |
| #169 | Taylor Trammell | TOR Bullpen Proxy | 36 | D Below |
| #170 | Victor Caratini | Justin Wrobleski | 36 | D Below |
| #175 | Mauricio Dubón | SD Bullpen Proxy | 36 | D Below |
| #176 | Cal Raleigh | Mitch Keller | 36 | D Below |
| #181 | Yainer Diaz | TOR Bullpen Proxy | 34 | D Below |
| #183 | Nolan Schanuel | Shane Baz | 34 | D Below |
| #193 | Cole Young | Mitch Keller | 31 | D Below |
| #200 | Jung Hoo Lee | Aaron Civale | 29 | D Below |
| #222 | Jorbit Vivas | Jesús Luzardo | 21 | D Below |
| #227 | Alex Call | Kendry Rojas | 20 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Junior Caminero, Cam Smith, Miguel Vargas, Daulton Varsho, Brandon Marsh, Francisco Alvarez, Brooks Lee, Joc Pederson, Bo Bichette, Heriberto Hernández, Joe Mack, Dansby Swanson, Bryson Stott, Ezequiel Tovar, Willi Castro, Brandon Nimmo, Nick Loftin, Taylor Trammell, Victor Caratini, Mauricio Dubón, Cal Raleigh, Yainer Diaz, Nolan Schanuel, Cole Young, Jung Hoo Lee, Jorbit Vivas, Alex Call