MLB Home Run Predictions — June 22, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-06-22: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for June 22, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
14
HRs by scored batters
2/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
52.4 vs 47.0
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Byron Buxton | Eric Lauer | 85 | A Excellent |
| #5 | Shohei Ohtani | Zebby Matthews | 77 | B AboveAvg |
| #50 | Freddie Freeman | Zebby Matthews | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #53 | Kazuma Okamoto | Hunter Brown | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #68 | Jorge Soler | Kyle Bradish | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #72 | Curtis Mead | Tim Mayza | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #75 | Manny Machado | Grant Holmes | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #85 | Coby Mayo | Sam Aldegheri | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #100 | Riley Greene | Gerrit Cole | 47 | D Below |
| #107 | Amed Rosario | Framber Valdez | 46 | D Below |
| #121 | Brandon Marsh | Foster Griffin | 44 | D Below |
| #158 | Ezequiel Duran | Tyler Phillips | 39 | D Below |
| #167 | Tommy Troy | Andre Pallante | 37 | D Below |
| #183 | Taylor Ward | Sam Aldegheri | 33 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Kazuma Okamoto, Jorge Soler, Curtis Mead, Manny Machado, Coby Mayo, Riley Greene, Amed Rosario, Brandon Marsh, Ezequiel Duran, Tommy Troy, Taylor Ward
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.