MLB Home Run Predictions — June 21, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-06-21: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for June 21, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
31
HRs by scored batters
2/5
Top-5 picks that homered
4/15
Top-15 picks that homered
49.8 vs 45.2
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2 | Kyle Schwarber | David Peterson | 79 | B AboveAvg |
| #3 | Ben Rice | Chase Burns | 79 | B AboveAvg |
| #9 | Nick Kurtz | Reid Detmers | 73 | B AboveAvg |
| #10 | Pete Alonso | Emmet Sheehan | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #19 | Zach Neto | Jack Perkins | 68 | C+ Value |
| #27 | TJ Rumfield | Jared Jones | 65 | C+ Value |
| #28 | Bryan Reynolds | Michael Lorenzen | 65 | C+ Value |
| #31 | Dillon Dingler | Davis Martin | 63 | C+ Value |
| #37 | Colton Cowser | Emmet Sheehan | 62 | C+ Value |
| #38 | Bryce Harper | David Peterson | 62 | C+ Value |
| #45 | CJ Abrams | Nick Martinez | 60 | C+ Value |
| #60 | Dominic Canzone | Payton Tolle | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #70 | Donovan Walton | Jack Perkins | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #94 | Jac Caglianone | Dustin May | 48 | D Below |
| #100 | Wyatt Langford | Wandy Peralta | 47 | D Below |
| #103 | Tyler Stephenson | Elmer Rodríguez | 47 | D Below |
| #118 | Carson Benge | Zack Wheeler | 45 | D Below |
| #119 | Kyle Stowers | Logan Webb | 44 | D Below |
| #134 | Blaze Alexander | Emmet Sheehan | 43 | D Below |
| #141 | Jonny DeLuca | Andrew Alvarez | 41 | D Below |
| #148 | Carter Jensen | Dustin May | 40 | D Below |
| #150 | Taylor Ward | Emmet Sheehan | 40 | D Below |
| #154 | Iván Herrera | Stephen Kolek | 39 | D Below |
| #163 | Denzer Guzman | Jack Perkins | 37 | D Below |
| #177 | William Contreras | Bryce Elder | 35 | D Below |
| #180 | Nick Gonzales | Michael Lorenzen | 35 | D Below |
| #181 | JJ Wetherholt | Stephen Kolek | 35 | D Below |
| #184 | Ryan Vilade | Andrew Alvarez | 34 | D Below |
| #199 | Nick Loftin | Dustin May | 30 | D Below |
| #225 | Masyn Winn | Stephen Kolek | 22 | D Below |
| #232 | Luisangel Acuña | Keider Montero | 18 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Dominic Canzone, Donovan Walton, Jac Caglianone, Wyatt Langford, Tyler Stephenson, Carson Benge, Kyle Stowers, Blaze Alexander, Jonny DeLuca, Carter Jensen, Taylor Ward, Iván Herrera, Denzer Guzman, William Contreras, Nick Gonzales, JJ Wetherholt, Ryan Vilade, Nick Loftin, Masyn Winn, Luisangel Acuña
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.