MLB Home Run Predictions — August 30, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-30: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 30, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
31
HRs by scored batters
2/5
Top-5 picks that homered
4/15
Top-15 picks that homered
46.9 vs 42.8
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #4 | Coby Mayo | Jeffrey Springs | 69 | C+ Value |
| #5 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Chase Burns | 69 | C+ Value |
| #8 | Sal Stewart | Shota Imanaga | 66 | C+ Value |
| #9 | Junior Caminero | Robbie Ray | 65 | C+ Value |
| #19 | Brian Serven | Chris Bassitt | 60 | C+ Value |
| #24 | Juan Soto | Ethan Pecko | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #31 | Esmerlyn Valdez | Matthew Liberatore | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #36 | Kazuma Okamoto | Logan Gilbert | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #37 | Gunnar Henderson | Jeffrey Springs | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #39 | Tyler Stephenson | Shota Imanaga | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #57 | Joc Pederson | Dustin May | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #59 | Paul Goldschmidt | Ranger Suarez | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #76 | Francisco Lindor | Ethan Pecko | 48 | D Below |
| #85 | Jeremy Peña | Zac Thornton | 46 | D Below |
| #88 | Nathaniel Lowe | Seth Lugo | 46 | D Below |
| #104 | Gary Sánchez | Kumar Rocker | 44 | D Below |
| #105 | Jake McCarthy | Tyler Mahle | 44 | D Below |
| #107 | Jonny DeLuca | Robbie Ray | 44 | D Below |
| #113 | Dane Myers | Shota Imanaga | 43 | D Below |
| #121 | Heliot Ramos | Ranger Suarez | 42 | D Below |
| #124 | Sean Murphy | COL Bullpen Proxy | 45 | D Below |
| #150 | Otto Lopez | Andrew Alvarez | 38 | D Below |
| #154 | Ezequiel Duran | Dustin May | 38 | D Below |
| #160 | Edmundo Sosa | Yusei Kikuchi | 37 | D Below |
| #161 | Alejandro Kirk | Logan Gilbert | 37 | D Below |
| #179 | José Ramírez | Seth Lugo | 36 | D Below |
| #182 | Teoscar Hernández | Framber Valdez | 35 | D Below |
| #184 | José Caballero | Ranger Suarez | 35 | D Below |
| #223 | J.T. Realmuto | Yusei Kikuchi | 31 | D Below |
| #231 | Luke Keaschall | Jordan Hicks | 29 | D Below |
| #241 | Jared Triolo | Matthew Liberatore | 23 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Joc Pederson, Paul Goldschmidt, Francisco Lindor, Jeremy Peña, Nathaniel Lowe, Gary Sánchez, Jake McCarthy, Jonny DeLuca, Dane Myers, Heliot Ramos, Sean Murphy, Otto Lopez, Ezequiel Duran, Edmundo Sosa, Alejandro Kirk, José Ramírez, Teoscar Hernández, José Caballero, J.T. Realmuto, Luke Keaschall, Jared Triolo
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.