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15-Day HR Leaders
1 Matt Olson 7 HRs · 2 Ceddanne Rafaela 5 HRs · 3 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 4 Kyle Stowers 4 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 4 HRs · 6 Ozzie Albies 4 HRs · 7 Wilyer Abreu 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Chase Meidroth 3 HRs · 10 Ezequiel Duran 3 HRs · 11 Royce Lewis 3 HRs · 12 Randy Arozarena 3 HRs 1 Matt Olson 7 HRs · 2 Ceddanne Rafaela 5 HRs · 3 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 4 Kyle Stowers 4 HRs · 5 Pete Crow-Armstrong 4 HRs · 6 Ozzie Albies 4 HRs · 7 Wilyer Abreu 4 HRs · 8 Dillon Dingler 4 HRs · 9 Chase Meidroth 3 HRs · 10 Ezequiel Duran 3 HRs · 11 Royce Lewis 3 HRs · 12 Randy Arozarena 3 HRs

MLB Home Run Predictions — August 6, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-08-06: what the model predicted, what actually happened.

Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 6, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.

20
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
5/15
Top-15 picks that homered
46.7 vs 42.8
Avg score: HR vs miss

Catch rates by cutoff

How many of our top-N picks went yard on 2026-08-06.
Top 5
1/5
20.0%
Top 10
4/10
40.0%
Top 15
5/15
33.3%
Top 25
5/25
20.0%

Home runs, graded

20 home runs by batters the model scored that day, listed by model rank. Low rank = the model called it; high rank = an honest miss.
RankBatterVs pitcherScoreTier
#3 Matt Olson Janson Junk
Truist Park
 71 B AboveAvg
#6 Sal Stewart Mason Barnett
Great American Ball Park
 63 C+ Value
#7 JJ Bleday Mason Barnett
Great American Ball Park
 62 C+ Value
#10 Dillon Dingler Bryce Miller
T-Mobile Park
 59 C BelowAvg
#14 Elly De La Cruz Mason Barnett
Great American Ball Park
 59 C BelowAvg
#40 Royce Lewis Michael Wacha
Kauffman Stadium
 50 C BelowAvg
#41 Tyler Stephenson Mason Barnett
Great American Ball Park
 50 C BelowAvg
#43 Francisco Lindor Foster Griffin
Progressive Field
 49 D Below
#51 Brandon Lowe Dustin May
American Family Field
 48 D Below
#54 Zach Neto Brandon Young
Camden Yards
 48 D Below
#63 Nathaniel Lowe Nolan McLean
Progressive Field
 46 D Below
#79 Jackson Chourio Braxton Ashcraft
American Family Field
 44 D Below
#96 Gary Sánchez Braxton Ashcraft
American Family Field
 41 D Below
#98 Marcus Semien Foster Griffin
Progressive Field
 41 D Below
#113 Kevin McGonigle Bryce Miller
T-Mobile Park
 40 D Below
#130 Luis Torrens Foster Griffin
Progressive Field
 37 D Below
#143 Alex Bregman Dylan Cease
Wrigley Field
 36 D Below
#162 Connor Wong Luis Castillo
Fenway Park
 32 D Below
#169 Yohel Pozo Ryan Johnson
Camden Yards
 29 D Below
#170 Chase Meidroth Ranger Suarez
Fenway Park
 29 D Below

Outside the top 50

Batters who homered but sat below our top-50 cut — the misses stay on the page.

Brandon Lowe, Zach Neto, Nathaniel Lowe, Jackson Chourio, Gary Sánchez, Marcus Semien, Kevin McGonigle, Luis Torrens, Alex Bregman, Connor Wong, Yohel Pozo, Chase Meidroth

← 2026-08-05 Today's predictions
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.
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