MLB Home Run Predictions — August 7, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-08-07: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 7, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #15 | Munetaka Murakami | Parker Messick | 60 | C+ Value |
| #17 | Matt Olson | Max Fried | 60 | C+ Value |
| #18 | Joc Pederson | Shane Baz | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #21 | Elly De La Cruz | Cade Cavalli | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #37 | Jackson Chourio | Zebby Matthews | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #45 | Daylen Lile | Chase Petty | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #53 | Andy Pages | Merrill Kelly | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #56 | Eugenio Suárez | Cade Cavalli | 49 | D Below |
| #66 | Nolan Arenado | Roki Sasaki | 48 | D Below |
| #68 | Mike Trout | Tyler Phillips | 48 | D Below |
| #72 | Rafael Devers | Keider Montero | 47 | D Below |
| #73 | Harry Ford | Chase Petty | 47 | D Below |
| #77 | Angel Martínez | Noah Schultz | 47 | D Below |
| #79 | Carter Jensen | Kevin Gausman | 47 | D Below |
| #94 | Tyler Soderstrom | Payton Tolle | 45 | D Below |
| #102 | Julio Rodríguez | Drew Rasmussen | 44 | D Below |
| #108 | Matt McLain | Cade Cavalli | 43 | D Below |
| #111 | Jarren Duran | Jack Perkins | 43 | D Below |
| #113 | Jonathan Aranda | Logan Gilbert | 43 | D Below |
| #122 | Cam Smith | Robbie Ray | 42 | D Below |
| #138 | Josh Bell | Shane Drohan | 40 | D Below |
| #142 | Marcus Semien | Carmen Mlodzinski | 39 | D Below |
| #146 | Iván Herrera | Ryan Feltner | 39 | D Below |
| #155 | Austin Riley | Max Fried | 38 | D Below |
| #156 | Willy Adames | Keider Montero | 37 | D Below |
| #178 | Andrés Giménez | Zack Wheeler | 35 | D Below |
| #188 | Josh Smith | Zack Wheeler | 34 | D Below |
| #203 | Braden Montgomery | Parker Messick | 32 | D Below |
| #204 | Pedro Ramírez | Daniel Lynch IV | 32 | D Below |
| #218 | Nolan Schanuel | Tyler Phillips | 28 | D Below |
| #229 | Steven Kwan | Noah Schultz | 24 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Andy Pages, Eugenio Suárez, Nolan Arenado, Mike Trout, Rafael Devers, Harry Ford, Angel Martínez, Carter Jensen, Tyler Soderstrom, Julio Rodríguez, Matt McLain, Jarren Duran, Jonathan Aranda, Cam Smith, Josh Bell, Marcus Semien, Iván Herrera, Austin Riley, Willy Adames, Andrés Giménez, Josh Smith, Braden Montgomery, Pedro Ramírez, Nolan Schanuel, Steven Kwan