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1 Ceddanne Rafaela 7 HRs · 2 Matt Olson 6 HRs · 3 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 4 Jeremy Peña 4 HRs · 5 Wilyer Abreu 4 HRs · 6 Kyle Manzardo 4 HRs · 7 Pete Crow-Armstrong 4 HRs · 8 Ozzie Albies 4 HRs · 9 Kyle Stowers 4 HRs · 10 Willi Castro 3 HRs · 11 Teoscar Hernández 3 HRs · 12 Max Muncy 3 HRs 1 Ceddanne Rafaela 7 HRs · 2 Matt Olson 6 HRs · 3 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 4 Jeremy Peña 4 HRs · 5 Wilyer Abreu 4 HRs · 6 Kyle Manzardo 4 HRs · 7 Pete Crow-Armstrong 4 HRs · 8 Ozzie Albies 4 HRs · 9 Kyle Stowers 4 HRs · 10 Willi Castro 3 HRs · 11 Teoscar Hernández 3 HRs · 12 Max Muncy 3 HRs

MLB Home Run Predictions — August 5, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-08-05: what the model predicted, what actually happened.

Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 5, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.

23
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
4/15
Top-15 picks that homered
47.7 vs 45.4
Avg score: HR vs miss

Catch rates by cutoff

How many of our top-N picks went yard on 2026-08-05.
Top 5
1/5
20.0%
Top 10
3/10
30.0%
Top 15
4/15
26.7%
Top 25
4/25
16.0%

Home runs, graded

23 home runs by batters the model scored that day, listed by model rank. Low rank = the model called it; high rank = an honest miss.
RankBatterVs pitcherScoreTier
#5 Junior Caminero Tomoyuki Sugano
Coors Field
 72 B AboveAvg
#8 Pete Crow-Armstrong Eric Lauer
Wrigley Field
 69 C+ Value
#10 Shohei Ohtani Shota Imanaga
Wrigley Field
 66 C+ Value
#13 Max Muncy Shota Imanaga
Wrigley Field
 64 C+ Value
#48 Dillon Dingler Bryan Woo
T-Mobile Park
 54 C BelowAvg
#54 Brandon Nimmo Carson Whisenhunt
Globe Life Field
 53 C BelowAvg
#56 Coby Mayo Reid Detmers
Camden Yards
 52 C BelowAvg
#60 Jose Altuve Jameson Taillon
Minute Maid Park
 52 C BelowAvg
#67 Jesús Sánchez Hunter Brown
Minute Maid Park
 51 C BelowAvg
#90 Wilyer Abreu Sean Burke
Fenway Park
 48 D Below
#123 Julio Rodríguez Drew Anderson
T-Mobile Park
 44 D Below
#125 Michael Massey Dean Kremer
Kauffman Stadium
 44 D Below
#128 Matt McLain Jacob Lopez
Great American Ball Park
 44 D Below
#131 Tyler O'Neill Reid Detmers
Camden Yards
 43 D Below
#144 Lawrence Butler Rhett Lowder
Great American Ball Park
 42 D Below
#154 Carson Benge Tanner Bibee
Progressive Field
 41 D Below
#159 Jose Siri Trevor Rogers
Camden Yards
 40 D Below
#166 Ernie Clement Hunter Brown
Minute Maid Park
 40 D Below
#171 Brett Baty Tanner Bibee
Progressive Field
 39 D Below
#182 Colt Emerson Drew Anderson
T-Mobile Park
 38 D Below
#193 Luis Arraez Jake Irvin
Citizens Bank Park
 37 D Below
#214 William Contreras Paul Skenes
American Family Field
 32 D Below
#215 Jorge Polanco Tanner Bibee
Progressive Field
 32 D Below

Outside the top 50

Batters who homered but sat below our top-50 cut — the misses stay on the page.

Brandon Nimmo, Coby Mayo, Jose Altuve, Jesús Sánchez, Wilyer Abreu, Julio Rodríguez, Michael Massey, Matt McLain, Tyler O'Neill, Lawrence Butler, Carson Benge, Jose Siri, Ernie Clement, Brett Baty, Colt Emerson, Luis Arraez, William Contreras, Jorge Polanco

← 2026-08-04 Today's predictions
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.
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