2026
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1 Ceddanne Rafaela 7 HRs · 2 Matt Olson 6 HRs · 3 Jeremy Peña 5 HRs · 4 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 5 Jackson Merrill 4 HRs · 6 Ozzie Albies 4 HRs · 7 Mickey Moniak 4 HRs · 8 Kyle Stowers 4 HRs · 9 Kyle Manzardo 4 HRs · 10 Bryce Harper 3 HRs · 11 Ben Rice 3 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 3 HRs 1 Ceddanne Rafaela 7 HRs · 2 Matt Olson 6 HRs · 3 Jeremy Peña 5 HRs · 4 Sal Stewart 5 HRs · 5 Jackson Merrill 4 HRs · 6 Ozzie Albies 4 HRs · 7 Mickey Moniak 4 HRs · 8 Kyle Stowers 4 HRs · 9 Kyle Manzardo 4 HRs · 10 Bryce Harper 3 HRs · 11 Ben Rice 3 HRs · 12 Dillon Dingler 3 HRs

MLB Home Run Predictions — August 4, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-08-04: what the model predicted, what actually happened.

Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for August 4, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.

20
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
0/15
Top-15 picks that homered
42.8 vs 45.3
Avg score: HR vs miss

Catch rates by cutoff

How many of our top-N picks went yard on 2026-08-04.
Top 5
0/5
0.0%
Top 10
0/10
0.0%
Top 15
0/15
0.0%
Top 25
1/25
4.0%

Home runs, graded

20 home runs by batters the model scored that day, listed by model rank. Low rank = the model called it; high rank = an honest miss.
RankBatterVs pitcherScoreTier
#18 Mickey Moniak Freddy Peralta
Coors Field
 61 C+ Value
#37 Dillon Dingler Emerson Hancock
T-Mobile Park
 56 C BelowAvg
#51 Taylor Trammell Trey Yesavage
Minute Maid Park
 52 C BelowAvg
#87 Riley Greene Emerson Hancock
T-Mobile Park
 48 D Below
#93 Ozzie Albies Ryan Gusto
Truist Park
 47 D Below
#94 Nolan Arenado Randy Vásquez
Chase Field
 47 D Below
#103 Willi Castro Freddy Peralta
Coors Field
 46 D Below
#114 Kyle Tucker Javier Assad
Wrigley Field
 45 D Below
#115 Austin Riley Ryan Gusto
Truist Park
 45 D Below
#123 Dansby Swanson Tarik Skubal
Wrigley Field
 44 D Below
#134 Wilyer Abreu Davis Martin
Fenway Park
 43 D Below
#139 Jackson Chourio Jared Jones
American Family Field
 43 D Below
#141 Josh Bell Randy Dobnak
Kauffman Stadium
 43 D Below
#162 Gleyber Torres Emerson Hancock
T-Mobile Park
 40 D Below
#192 Jarren Duran Davis Martin
Fenway Park
 36 D Below
#193 Carson Benge Joey Cantillo
Progressive Field
 36 D Below
#202 Bo Bichette Joey Cantillo
Progressive Field
 34 D Below
#216 Luis Torrens Joey Cantillo
Progressive Field
 31 D Below
#220 Caleb Durbin Davis Martin
Fenway Park
 29 D Below
#221 Nico Hoerner Tarik Skubal
Wrigley Field
 29 D Below

Outside the top 50

Batters who homered but sat below our top-50 cut — the misses stay on the page.

Taylor Trammell, Riley Greene, Ozzie Albies, Nolan Arenado, Willi Castro, Kyle Tucker, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, Wilyer Abreu, Jackson Chourio, Josh Bell, Gleyber Torres, Jarren Duran, Carson Benge, Bo Bichette, Luis Torrens, Caleb Durbin, Nico Hoerner

← 2026-08-03 Today's predictions
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.
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