MLB Home Run Predictions — July 26, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-26: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 26, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
32
HRs by scored batters
2/5
Top-5 picks that homered
6/15
Top-15 picks that homered
47.5 vs 41.2
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Esmerlyn Valdez | Jameson Taillon | 74 | B AboveAvg |
| #3 | Ben Rice | Cristopher Sánchez | 68 | C+ Value |
| #6 | James Wood | Kohl Drake | 66 | C+ Value |
| #9 | Munetaka Murakami | HOU Bullpen Proxy | 65 | C+ Value |
| #11 | CJ Abrams | Kohl Drake | 61 | C+ Value |
| #14 | Pete Alonso | Reynaldo López | 61 | C+ Value |
| #24 | Ketel Marte | Miles Mikolas | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #28 | Miguel Vargas | HOU Bullpen Proxy | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #29 | Nick Kurtz | Connor Prielipp | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #33 | Elly De La Cruz | Kyle Leahy | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #38 | Manny Machado | Janson Junk | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #41 | Tyrone Taylor | Emmet Sheehan | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #45 | Dominic Canzone | Jacob deGrom | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #79 | Andrew Vaughn | Kyle Freeland | 46 | D Below |
| #80 | Ryan O'Hearn | Jameson Taillon | 46 | D Below |
| #94 | Bryson Stott | Will Warren | 45 | D Below |
| #98 | Seiya Suzuki | Braxton Ashcraft | 44 | D Below |
| #100 | Jackson Merrill | Janson Junk | 44 | D Below |
| #103 | Kyle Stowers | Walker Buehler | 44 | D Below |
| #110 | Jeremy Peña | Erick Fedde | 43 | D Below |
| #135 | Jo Adell | Carson Whisenhunt | 40 | D Below |
| #141 | Randy Arozarena | Jacob deGrom | 40 | D Below |
| #151 | Geraldo Perdomo | Miles Mikolas | 38 | D Below |
| #152 | Jorge Soler | Carson Whisenhunt | 38 | D Below |
| #164 | Ezequiel Duran | Logan Gilbert | 38 | D Below |
| #168 | Taylor Trammell | Erick Fedde | 38 | D Below |
| #170 | Lane Thomas | Framber Valdez | 37 | D Below |
| #172 | Cole Carrigg | Jacob Misiorowski | 37 | D Below |
| #179 | Willi Castro | Jacob Misiorowski | 36 | D Below |
| #193 | Iván Herrera | Andrew Abbott | 34 | D Below |
| #209 | Ke'Bryan Hayes | Kyle Leahy | 32 | D Below |
| #238 | Chase Meidroth | HOU Bullpen Proxy | 30 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Andrew Vaughn, Ryan O'Hearn, Bryson Stott, Seiya Suzuki, Jackson Merrill, Kyle Stowers, Jeremy Peña, Jo Adell, Randy Arozarena, Geraldo Perdomo, Jorge Soler, Ezequiel Duran, Taylor Trammell, Lane Thomas, Cole Carrigg, Willi Castro, Iván Herrera, Ke'Bryan Hayes, Chase Meidroth
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.