2026
15-Day HR Leaders
1 Pete Alonso 8 HRs · 2 Nolan Arenado 6 HRs · 3 Brandon Lowe 6 HRs · 4 Isaac Paredes 5 HRs · 5 Austin Wells 4 HRs · 6 Elly De La Cruz 4 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 4 HRs · 8 Vinnie Pasquantino 4 HRs · 9 Spencer Torkelson 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Gabriel Moreno 4 HRs · 12 Christian Walker 4 HRs 1 Pete Alonso 8 HRs · 2 Nolan Arenado 6 HRs · 3 Brandon Lowe 6 HRs · 4 Isaac Paredes 5 HRs · 5 Austin Wells 4 HRs · 6 Elly De La Cruz 4 HRs · 7 Zack Gelof 4 HRs · 8 Vinnie Pasquantino 4 HRs · 9 Spencer Torkelson 4 HRs · 10 Manny Machado 4 HRs · 11 Gabriel Moreno 4 HRs · 12 Christian Walker 4 HRs

MLB Home Run Predictions — September 27, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-09-27: what the model predicted, what actually happened.

Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 27, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.

30
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
46.0 vs 43.1
Avg score: HR vs miss

Catch rates by cutoff

Top 5
0/5
0.0%
Top 10
0/10
0.0%
Top 15
2/15
13.3%
Top 25
3/25
12.0%

Home runs, graded

RankBatterVs pitcherScoreTier
#13 Christian Walker Seth Johnson
Sutter Health Park
64 C+ Value
#15 Randal Grichuk Kyle Freeland
Rate Field
62 C+ Value
#19 Andrés Chaparro Sean Manaea
Nationals Park
59 C BelowAvg
#29 Griffin Conine JR Ritchie
loanDepot Park
56 C BelowAvg
#35 Corey Seager Dean Kremer
Target Field
55 C BelowAvg
#42 Bryce Harper Nick Martinez
Citizens Bank Park
54 C BelowAvg
#51 Cole Carrigg Anthony Kay
Rate Field
52 C BelowAvg
#59 Francisco Lindor WSH Bullpen Proxy
Nationals Park
54 C BelowAvg
#63 Heriberto Hernández JR Ritchie
loanDepot Park
50 C BelowAvg
#68 Jo Adell Daniel Lynch IV
Kauffman Stadium
49 D Below
#79 Eduardo Valencia Jared Jones
Comerica Park
47 D Below
#82 Edmundo Sosa Nick Martinez
Citizens Bank Park
47 D Below
#86 Adley Rutschman Shota Imanaga
Tropicana Field
47 D Below
#90 Andy Pages Carson Seymour
Oracle Park
46 D Below
#92 Vinnie Pasquantino Parker Messick
Kauffman Stadium
46 D Below
#107 Brenton Doyle Kyle Freeland
Rate Field
45 D Below
#119 Ronny Mauricio WSH Bullpen Proxy
Nationals Park
47 D Below
#124 Josh Bell MacKenzie Gore
Target Field
43 D Below
#131 Alex Bregman BOS Bullpen Proxy
Tropicana Field
46 D Below
#136 Gary Sánchez Andre Pallante
American Family Field
42 D Below
#140 Royce Lewis MacKenzie Gore
Target Field
42 D Below
#145 Danny Jansen Dean Kremer
Target Field
41 D Below
#147 Brandon Valenzuela Brandon Williamson
Rogers Centre
41 D Below
#156 Daniel Schneemann Daniel Lynch IV
Kauffman Stadium
40 D Below
#176 Jonny DeLuca Zack Wheeler
Citizens Bank Park
38 D Below
#181 Gavin Sheets Michael Soroka
Petco Park
37 D Below
#189 Charles McAdoo Brandon Williamson
Rogers Centre
37 D Below
#196 Kevin McGonigle Jared Jones
Comerica Park
35 D Below
#235 Mauricio Dubón Janson Junk
loanDepot Park
28 D Below
#237 Konnor Griffin DET Bullpen Proxy
Comerica Park
31 D Below

Outside the top 50

Cole Carrigg, Francisco Lindor, Heriberto Hernández, Jo Adell, Eduardo Valencia, Edmundo Sosa, Adley Rutschman, Andy Pages, Vinnie Pasquantino, Brenton Doyle, Ronny Mauricio, Josh Bell, Alex Bregman, Gary Sánchez, Royce Lewis, Danny Jansen, Brandon Valenzuela, Daniel Schneemann, Jonny DeLuca, Gavin Sheets, Charles McAdoo, Kevin McGonigle, Mauricio Dubón, Konnor Griffin

The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.
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