MLB Home Run Predictions — September 27, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-27: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 27, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #13 | Christian Walker | Seth Johnson | 64 | C+ Value |
| #15 | Randal Grichuk | Kyle Freeland | 62 | C+ Value |
| #19 | Andrés Chaparro | Sean Manaea | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #29 | Griffin Conine | JR Ritchie | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #35 | Corey Seager | Dean Kremer | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #42 | Bryce Harper | Nick Martinez | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #51 | Cole Carrigg | Anthony Kay | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #59 | Francisco Lindor | WSH Bullpen Proxy | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #63 | Heriberto Hernández | JR Ritchie | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #68 | Jo Adell | Daniel Lynch IV | 49 | D Below |
| #79 | Eduardo Valencia | Jared Jones | 47 | D Below |
| #82 | Edmundo Sosa | Nick Martinez | 47 | D Below |
| #86 | Adley Rutschman | Shota Imanaga | 47 | D Below |
| #90 | Andy Pages | Carson Seymour | 46 | D Below |
| #92 | Vinnie Pasquantino | Parker Messick | 46 | D Below |
| #107 | Brenton Doyle | Kyle Freeland | 45 | D Below |
| #119 | Ronny Mauricio | WSH Bullpen Proxy | 47 | D Below |
| #124 | Josh Bell | MacKenzie Gore | 43 | D Below |
| #131 | Alex Bregman | BOS Bullpen Proxy | 46 | D Below |
| #136 | Gary Sánchez | Andre Pallante | 42 | D Below |
| #140 | Royce Lewis | MacKenzie Gore | 42 | D Below |
| #145 | Danny Jansen | Dean Kremer | 41 | D Below |
| #147 | Brandon Valenzuela | Brandon Williamson | 41 | D Below |
| #156 | Daniel Schneemann | Daniel Lynch IV | 40 | D Below |
| #176 | Jonny DeLuca | Zack Wheeler | 38 | D Below |
| #181 | Gavin Sheets | Michael Soroka | 37 | D Below |
| #189 | Charles McAdoo | Brandon Williamson | 37 | D Below |
| #196 | Kevin McGonigle | Jared Jones | 35 | D Below |
| #235 | Mauricio Dubón | Janson Junk | 28 | D Below |
| #237 | Konnor Griffin | DET Bullpen Proxy | 31 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Cole Carrigg, Francisco Lindor, Heriberto Hernández, Jo Adell, Eduardo Valencia, Edmundo Sosa, Adley Rutschman, Andy Pages, Vinnie Pasquantino, Brenton Doyle, Ronny Mauricio, Josh Bell, Alex Bregman, Gary Sánchez, Royce Lewis, Danny Jansen, Brandon Valenzuela, Daniel Schneemann, Jonny DeLuca, Gavin Sheets, Charles McAdoo, Kevin McGonigle, Mauricio Dubón, Konnor Griffin