MLB Home Run Predictions — September 26, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-26: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 26, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Yordan Álvarez | Jack Perkins | 74 | B AboveAvg |
| #6 | Junior Caminero | Aaron Nola | 66 | C+ Value |
| #7 | Hunter Goodman | Davis Martin | 64 | C+ Value |
| #19 | Jeremy Peña | Jack Perkins | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #23 | Isaac Paredes | Jack Perkins | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #28 | Brandon Lowe | DET Bullpen Proxy | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #52 | Jake Burger | Bailey Ober | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #59 | Alec Burleson | Dustin May | 49 | D Below |
| #80 | JJ Bleday | Trey Yesavage | 47 | D Below |
| #81 | Drake Baldwin | Jack Ralston | 47 | D Below |
| #82 | Manny Machado | AZ Bullpen Proxy | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #85 | J. P. Crawford | Ryan Johnson | 46 | D Below |
| #91 | Chase DeLauter | Michael Wacha | 45 | D Below |
| #95 | Eduardo Valencia | Kirby Yates | 44 | D Below |
| #96 | Ronny Mauricio | Connelly Early | 44 | D Below |
| #98 | A.J. Ewing | Connelly Early | 44 | D Below |
| #106 | Brenton Doyle | Jose Quintana | 44 | D Below |
| #110 | Brice Turang | Quinn Mathews | 43 | D Below |
| #117 | Mookie Betts | Matt Wilkinson | 42 | D Below |
| #129 | Ezequiel Tovar | Davis Martin | 41 | D Below |
| #142 | Patrick Bailey | Michael Wacha | 40 | D Below |
| #147 | Danny Jansen | Bailey Ober | 39 | D Below |
| #154 | Brayan Rocchio | Michael Wacha | 37 | D Below |
| #168 | Dominic Smith | Jack Ralston | 34 | D Below |
| #170 | Luisangel Acuña | Jose Quintana | 34 | D Below |
| #172 | Enrique Hernández | Matt Wilkinson | 33 | D Below |
| #182 | Javier Sanoja | Brent Suter | 31 | D Below |
| #197 | Xander Bogaerts | AZ Bullpen Proxy | 32 | D Below |
| #204 | Jacob Gonzalez | DET Bullpen Proxy | 31 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Jake Burger, Alec Burleson, JJ Bleday, Drake Baldwin, Manny Machado, J. P. Crawford, Chase DeLauter, Eduardo Valencia, Ronny Mauricio, A.J. Ewing, Brenton Doyle, Brice Turang, Mookie Betts, Ezequiel Tovar, Patrick Bailey, Danny Jansen, Brayan Rocchio, Dominic Smith, Luisangel Acuña, Enrique Hernández, Javier Sanoja, Xander Bogaerts, Jacob Gonzalez