MLB Home Run Predictions — September 25, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-25: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 25, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
29
HRs by scored batters
3/5
Top-5 picks that homered
3/15
Top-15 picks that homered
50.2 vs 43.5
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Pete Alonso | Brendan Beck | 80 | A Excellent |
| #3 | Munetaka Murakami | Tomoyuki Sugano | 74 | B AboveAvg |
| #4 | Pete Alonso | NYY Bullpen Proxy | 76 | B AboveAvg |
| #26 | Carter Jensen | Gavin Williams | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #29 | Christian Walker | Jacob Lopez | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #34 | Rafael Flores Jr. | Jackson Jobe | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #39 | Cam Smith | Jacob Lopez | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #41 | Jeremiah Jackson | Brendan Beck | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #47 | Eugenio Suárez | José Soriano | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #54 | Zach Neto | Bryce Miller | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #64 | Jordan Walker | Robert Gasser | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #65 | Dominic Canzone | Reid Detmers | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #72 | Dylan Beavers | Brendan Beck | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #76 | Kody Clemens | Jacob deGrom | 49 | D Below |
| #79 | Spencer Torkelson | Bubba Chandler | 48 | D Below |
| #98 | Griffin Conine | Ray Kerr | 47 | D Below |
| #104 | Salvador Perez | Gavin Williams | 47 | D Below |
| #106 | Nolan Arenado | SD Bullpen Proxy | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #127 | Dylan Crews | NYM Bullpen Proxy | 48 | D Below |
| #128 | Carson Benge | Andrew Alvarez | 44 | D Below |
| #148 | Andy Pages | Yunior Marte | 42 | D Below |
| #149 | David Fry | Noah Cameron | 42 | D Below |
| #158 | Teoscar Hernández | Yunior Marte | 41 | D Below |
| #172 | Iván Herrera | Robert Gasser | 40 | D Below |
| #182 | Bo Bichette | Andrew Alvarez | 39 | D Below |
| #186 | TJ Rumfield | Sean Burke | 39 | D Below |
| #204 | Joe Mack | Ray Kerr | 37 | D Below |
| #217 | Austin Hedges | Noah Cameron | 36 | D Below |
| #226 | Nick Fortes | Cristopher Sánchez | 34 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Zach Neto, Jordan Walker, Dominic Canzone, Dylan Beavers, Kody Clemens, Spencer Torkelson, Griffin Conine, Salvador Perez, Nolan Arenado, Dylan Crews, Carson Benge, Andy Pages, David Fry, Teoscar Hernández, Iván Herrera, Bo Bichette, TJ Rumfield, Joe Mack, Austin Hedges, Nick Fortes
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.