MLB Home Run Predictions — July 10, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-10: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 10, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | James Wood | Ryan Weathers | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #2 | Shohei Ohtani | Eduardo Rodriguez | 69 | C+ Value |
| #4 | Junior Caminero | Luis Castillo | 68 | C+ Value |
| #6 | Yordan Alvarez | Cal Quantrill | 67 | C+ Value |
| #11 | Ben Rice | Carson Palmquist | 63 | C+ Value |
| #19 | Elly De La Cruz | Shota Imanaga | 61 | C+ Value |
| #26 | Kazuma Okamoto | JP Sears | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #27 | Samuel Basallo | Luinder Avila | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #31 | JJ Bleday | Shota Imanaga | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #36 | Miguel Vargas | Jacob Lopez | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #40 | Andy Pages | Eduardo Rodriguez | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #41 | Rafael Devers | Tanner Gordon | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #47 | Heriberto Hernández | Parker Messick | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #54 | Jac Caglianone | Brandon Young | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #60 | Spencer Torkelson | Aaron Nola | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #64 | Joc Pederson | Hunter Brown | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #97 | Tyler Soderstrom | Sean Burke | 45 | D Below |
| #107 | Chase DeLauter | Sandy Alcantara | 44 | D Below |
| #110 | Vaughn Grissom | Zebby Matthews | 44 | D Below |
| #114 | Wyatt Langford | Hunter Brown | 43 | D Below |
| #116 | Cole Young | Nick Martinez | 43 | D Below |
| #117 | Cedric Mullins | Luis Castillo | 43 | D Below |
| #118 | Jake Burger | Hunter Brown | 43 | D Below |
| #121 | Keibert Ruiz | Ryan Weathers | 42 | D Below |
| #130 | Wilyer Abreu | Nolan McLean | 42 | D Below |
| #131 | Blaze Alexander | Luinder Avila | 42 | D Below |
| #147 | Colt Keith | Aaron Nola | 40 | D Below |
| #148 | Yainer Diaz | Cal Quantrill | 40 | D Below |
| #156 | Jasson Domínguez | Carson Palmquist | 39 | D Below |
| #158 | Xander Bogaerts | Shane Bieber | 39 | D Below |
| #162 | Isaac Collins | Brandon Young | 39 | D Below |
| #167 | Tristan Peters | Jacob Lopez | 38 | D Below |
| #175 | Leo Jiménez | Parker Messick | 37 | D Below |
| #179 | Kevin McGonigle | Aaron Nola | 36 | D Below |
| #199 | Brett Baty | Sonny Gray | 33 | D Below |
| #200 | Richie Palacios | Luis Castillo | 33 | D Below |
| #203 | Austin Wells | Carson Palmquist | 32 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Jac Caglianone, Spencer Torkelson, Joc Pederson, Tyler Soderstrom, Chase DeLauter, Vaughn Grissom, Wyatt Langford, Cole Young, Cedric Mullins, Jake Burger, Keibert Ruiz, Wilyer Abreu, Blaze Alexander, Colt Keith, Yainer Diaz, Jasson Domínguez, Xander Bogaerts, Isaac Collins, Tristan Peters, Leo Jiménez, Kevin McGonigle, Brett Baty, Richie Palacios, Austin Wells