MLB Home Run Predictions — July 9, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-09: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 9, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 | Ben Rice | Drew Rasmussen | 67 | C+ Value |
| #5 | Junior Caminero | Paul Blackburn | 65 | C+ Value |
| #6 | Dominic Canzone | Janson Junk | 64 | C+ Value |
| #8 | Juan Soto | Michael Wacha | 62 | C+ Value |
| #11 | Manny Machado | Merrill Kelly | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #15 | Matt Olson | Mitch Keller | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #21 | Jordan Walker | Logan Henderson | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #25 | Seiya Suzuki | Trevor Rogers | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #34 | Jake Bauers | Andre Pallante | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #39 | Esmerlyn Valdez | Bryce Elder | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #41 | Gabriel Arias | Bailey Ober | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #50 | Royce Lewis | Gavin Williams | 49 | D Below |
| #57 | Justin Foscue | Reid Detmers | 47 | D Below |
| #60 | Randy Arozarena | Janson Junk | 47 | D Below |
| #75 | Chase DeLauter | Bailey Ober | 45 | D Below |
| #79 | Casey Schmitt | Ryan Feltner | 44 | D Below |
| #81 | Griffin Conine | Bryce Miller | 44 | D Below |
| #88 | Tyler O'Neill | David Peterson | 43 | D Below |
| #97 | Bryce Eldridge | Ryan Feltner | 42 | D Below |
| #105 | Bryan Reynolds | Bryce Elder | 41 | D Below |
| #113 | Willy Adames | Ryan Feltner | 40 | D Below |
| #117 | Nolan Arenado | Griffin Canning | 40 | D Below |
| #119 | Lane Thomas | Sean Manaea | 40 | D Below |
| #120 | Brice Turang | Andre Pallante | 39 | D Below |
| #125 | Brandon Nimmo | Reid Detmers | 39 | D Below |
| #129 | Caleb Durbin | Anthony Kay | 38 | D Below |
| #141 | Patrick Bailey | Bailey Ober | 37 | D Below |
| #159 | Ezequiel Duran | Reid Detmers | 34 | D Below |
| #168 | Austin Wells | Drew Rasmussen | 33 | D Below |
| #170 | Mike Yastrzemski | Mitch Keller | 33 | D Below |
| #187 | Jake Rogers | José Suarez | 28 | D Below |
| #196 | Willi Castro | Carson Whisenhunt | 25 | D Below |
| #201 | Zach McKinstry | José Suarez | 23 | D Below |
| #210 | Jake Mangum | Bryce Elder | 19 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Justin Foscue, Randy Arozarena, Chase DeLauter, Casey Schmitt, Griffin Conine, Tyler O'Neill, Bryce Eldridge, Bryan Reynolds, Willy Adames, Nolan Arenado, Lane Thomas, Brice Turang, Brandon Nimmo, Caleb Durbin, Patrick Bailey, Ezequiel Duran, Austin Wells, Mike Yastrzemski, Jake Rogers, Willi Castro, Zach McKinstry, Jake Mangum