MLB Home Run Predictions — July 11, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-11: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 11, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #5 | James Wood | Cam Schlittler | 67 | C+ Value |
| #6 | Yordan Alvarez | Kumar Rocker | 66 | C+ Value |
| #13 | Pete Alonso | Noah Cameron | 62 | C+ Value |
| #29 | JJ Bleday | Javier Assad | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #32 | Esmerlyn Valdez | Brandon Sproat | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #35 | Jake Bauers | Bubba Chandler | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #37 | Coby Mayo | Noah Cameron | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #43 | Paul Goldschmidt | PJ Poulin | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #51 | Esmerlyn Valdez | Shane Drohan | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #55 | Gunnar Henderson | Noah Cameron | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #58 | Jake Bauers | Braxton Ashcraft | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #61 | Nathaniel Lowe | Javier Assad | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #62 | Royce Lewis | Ryan Johnson | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #64 | Curtis Mead | Cam Schlittler | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #77 | Trent Grisham | PJ Poulin | 49 | D Below |
| #78 | Casey Schmitt | Kyle Freeland | 49 | D Below |
| #79 | Nolan Arenado | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 49 | D Below |
| #84 | Eugenio Suárez | Javier Assad | 48 | D Below |
| #133 | Carson Kelly | Nick Lodolo | 43 | D Below |
| #140 | Ty France | Trey Yesavage | 42 | D Below |
| #146 | Andruw Monasterio | Freddy Peralta | 42 | D Below |
| #147 | Kyle Karros | Tyler Mahle | 41 | D Below |
| #152 | Alex Bregman | Nick Lodolo | 41 | D Below |
| #163 | Taylor Ward | Noah Cameron | 40 | D Below |
| #173 | James McCann | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 39 | D Below |
| #174 | Ezequiel Duran | Peter Lambert | 39 | D Below |
| #195 | Mauricio Dubón | Matthew Liberatore | 36 | D Below |
| #208 | Lars Nootbaar | Reynaldo López | 34 | D Below |
| #215 | Masataka Yoshida | Freddy Peralta | 33 | D Below |
| #244 | Christian Vázquez | Kumar Rocker | 28 | D Below |
| #263 | Sal Frelick | Braxton Ashcraft | 21 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Esmerlyn Valdez, Gunnar Henderson, Jake Bauers, Nathaniel Lowe, Royce Lewis, Curtis Mead, Trent Grisham, Casey Schmitt, Nolan Arenado, Eugenio Suárez, Carson Kelly, Ty France, Andruw Monasterio, Kyle Karros, Alex Bregman, Taylor Ward, James McCann, Ezequiel Duran, Mauricio Dubón, Lars Nootbaar, Masataka Yoshida, Christian Vázquez, Sal Frelick