MLB Home Run Predictions — July 12, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-12: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 12, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Shohei Ohtani | AZ Bullpen Proxy | 78 | B AboveAvg |
| #2 | James Wood | Will Warren | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| #11 | Samuel Basallo | Seth Lugo | 64 | C+ Value |
| #27 | Shea Langeliers | Noah Schultz | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #54 | Eugenio Suárez | Matthew Boyd | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #59 | Chase DeLauter | Tyler Phillips | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #83 | Jonathan Aranda | Emerson Hancock | 47 | D Below |
| #88 | Randy Arozarena | Ian Seymour | 46 | D Below |
| #94 | Kyle Higashioka | Cristian Javier | 45 | D Below |
| #96 | Tim Tawa | Emmet Sheehan | 45 | D Below |
| #113 | Leody Taveras | Seth Lugo | 44 | D Below |
| #121 | Josh Lowe | Taj Bradley | 43 | D Below |
| #127 | Alex Bregman | Andrew Abbott | 43 | D Below |
| #134 | Cam Smith | MacKenzie Gore | 42 | D Below |
| #141 | Trevor Larnach | José Soriano | 41 | D Below |
| #142 | Henry Davis | Robert Gasser | 41 | D Below |
| #157 | Brayan Rocchio | Tyler Phillips | 39 | D Below |
| #158 | Francisco Lindor | Payton Tolle | 39 | D Below |
| #161 | Denzer Guzman | Taj Bradley | 39 | D Below |
| #165 | Jose Altuve | MacKenzie Gore | 38 | D Below |
| #166 | Brice Turang | Paul Skenes | 38 | D Below |
| #178 | Jake McCarthy | Trevor McDonald | 36 | D Below |
| #183 | Weston Wilson | Ian Seymour | 35 | D Below |
| #187 | Marcell Ozuna | Robert Gasser | 34 | D Below |
| #202 | Sam Antonacci | J.T. Ginn | 33 | D Below |
| #204 | Ernie Clement | Germán Márquez | 33 | D Below |
| #210 | Braden Montgomery | J.T. Ginn | 32 | D Below |
| #216 | Nathan Lukes | Germán Márquez | 31 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Eugenio Suárez, Chase DeLauter, Jonathan Aranda, Randy Arozarena, Kyle Higashioka, Tim Tawa, Leody Taveras, Josh Lowe, Alex Bregman, Cam Smith, Trevor Larnach, Henry Davis, Brayan Rocchio, Francisco Lindor, Denzer Guzman, Jose Altuve, Brice Turang, Jake McCarthy, Weston Wilson, Marcell Ozuna, Sam Antonacci, Ernie Clement, Braden Montgomery, Nathan Lukes