MLB Home Run Predictions — July 16, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-16: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 16, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
3
HRs by scored batters
1/5
Top-5 picks that homered
3/15
Top-15 picks that homered
46.3 vs 51.7
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #4 | Francisco Alvarez | Aaron Nola | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #12 | Brett Baty | Aaron Nola | 44 | D Below |
| #13 | Trea Turner | Christian Scott | 42 | D Below |
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.