MLB Home Run Predictions — July 17, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-17: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 17, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #6 | Matt Olson | Cal Quantrill | 72 | B AboveAvg |
| #18 | Shea Langeliers | Cade Cavalli | 62 | C+ Value |
| #20 | Willson Contreras | Mason Englert | 61 | C+ Value |
| #25 | Max Muncy | Gerrit Cole | 61 | C+ Value |
| #28 | Ryan Jeffers | Colin Rea | 60 | C+ Value |
| #29 | Tyler Soderstrom | Cade Cavalli | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #33 | Elly De La Cruz | Gabriel Hughes | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #34 | Drake Baldwin | Cal Quantrill | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #35 | Junior Caminero | Jake Bennett | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #43 | Junior Caminero | Eduardo Rivera | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #51 | Griffin Conine | Logan Henderson | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #72 | Ty France | Seth Lugo | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #77 | George Springer | Anthony Kay | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #78 | Eugenio Suárez | Gabriel Hughes | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #86 | Willi Castro | Brady Singer | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #87 | Corbin Carroll | Michael McGreevy | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #89 | Spencer Steer | Gabriel Hughes | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #96 | Austin Riley | Cal Quantrill | 49 | D Below |
| #100 | Brandon Valenzuela | Anthony Kay | 48 | D Below |
| #114 | Daylen Lile | Gage Jump | 46 | D Below |
| #117 | Wilyer Abreu | Griffin Jax | 46 | D Below |
| #119 | Wilyer Abreu | Mason Englert | 46 | D Below |
| #127 | Jj Wetherholt | Merrill Kelly | 45 | D Below |
| #130 | Bryce Eldridge | Bryce Miller | 44 | D Below |
| #131 | Lane Thomas | Michael King | 44 | D Below |
| #154 | Taylor Ward | Peter Lambert | 42 | D Below |
| #168 | Willy Adames | Bryce Miller | 39 | D Below |
| #171 | Sam Antonacci | Spencer Miles | 39 | D Below |
| #192 | Joey Ortiz | Sandy Alcantara | 37 | D Below |
| #204 | Masataka Yoshida | Griffin Jax | 35 | D Below |
| #207 | Masataka Yoshida | Mason Englert | 35 | D Below |
| #213 | Carlos Narváez | Griffin Jax | 33 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Griffin Conine, Ty France, George Springer, Eugenio Suárez, Willi Castro, Corbin Carroll, Spencer Steer, Austin Riley, Brandon Valenzuela, Daylen Lile, Wilyer Abreu, Wilyer Abreu, Jj Wetherholt, Bryce Eldridge, Lane Thomas, Taylor Ward, Willy Adames, Sam Antonacci, Joey Ortiz, Masataka Yoshida, Masataka Yoshida, Carlos Narváez