MLB Home Run Predictions — July 18, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-07-18: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for July 18, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #3 | Kyle Schwarber | Sean Manaea | 75 | B AboveAvg |
| #11 | Esmerlyn Valdez | Gavin Williams | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #13 | Tyler Soderstrom | Zack Littell | 69 | C+ Value |
| #32 | Joc Pederson | ATL Bullpen Proxy | 63 | C+ Value |
| #35 | Kody Clemens | Matthew Boyd | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #57 | Spencer Torkelson | Grayson Rodriguez | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #73 | Wilyer Abreu | Ian Seymour | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #78 | Carlos Cortes | Zack Littell | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #90 | Eli White | MacKenzie Gore | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #92 | TJ Rumfield | Rhett Lowder | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #99 | Tyrone Taylor | Jesús Luzardo | 49 | D Below |
| #120 | Rafael Devers | Bryan Woo | 47 | D Below |
| #131 | Lane Thomas | Griffin Canning | 46 | D Below |
| #134 | Michael Busch | Taj Bradley | 46 | D Below |
| #137 | Jose Trevino | Tomoyuki Sugano | 46 | D Below |
| #145 | Trea Turner | Sean Manaea | 45 | D Below |
| #146 | Salvador Perez | Griffin Canning | 45 | D Below |
| #179 | Willy Adames | Bryan Woo | 41 | D Below |
| #181 | Jacob Wilson | Zack Littell | 41 | D Below |
| #185 | Evan Carter | ATL Bullpen Proxy | 44 | D Below |
| #188 | Travis Bazzana | Jared Jones | 40 | D Below |
| #210 | Travis Bazzana | Mason Montgomery | 38 | D Below |
| #213 | Jahmai Jones | Ian Seymour | 38 | D Below |
| #237 | Jonny DeLuca | BOS Bullpen Proxy | 38 | D Below |
| #238 | Cole Young | Logan Webb | 34 | D Below |
| #239 | Jacob Gonzalez | Gavin Williams | 34 | D Below |
| #248 | Nick Gonzales | Logan Allen | 31 | D Below |
| #251 | Nick Gonzales | Gavin Williams | 30 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Spencer Torkelson, Wilyer Abreu, Carlos Cortes, Eli White, TJ Rumfield, Tyrone Taylor, Rafael Devers, Lane Thomas, Michael Busch, Jose Trevino, Trea Turner, Salvador Perez, Willy Adames, Jacob Wilson, Evan Carter, Travis Bazzana, Travis Bazzana, Jahmai Jones, Jonny DeLuca, Cole Young, Jacob Gonzalez, Nick Gonzales, Nick Gonzales