26
HRs allowed
10.8%
HR rate (pool)
17.2%
Overall HR/FB
3.3
FIP
3.23
xFIP
+0.08
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
77
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 77th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
16.6%
Hard-Hit% allowed
69.5%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.9 EV · 391 ft
max EV allowed 113.4
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 4 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Nolan McLean.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
34.7%
82.9
11.1°
4
-2.7
Fastball Hard
19.4%
84.0
34.8°
7
-0.1
Curveball Breaking
14.4%
77.7
-3.0°
1
-0.7
Sweeper Breaking
10.7%
76.8
9.3°
2
+2.7
Cutter Hard
10.5%
84.0
19.5°
2
+1.6
Changeup Offspeed
6.2%
76.4
8.6°
1
+1.0
Slider Breaking
3.9%
76.8
17.7°
0
-1.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups241
HRs allowed (pool)26
Pool HR rate10.8%
Pool HR/game day0.9
Top-15 matchups14
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB17.2% 77
HR/9—
FIP3.3 20
xFIP3.23
FIP − xFIP+0.08 52
Barrel% allowed16.6%
Hard-Hit% allowed69.5%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Sinker
Hard · 34.7% usage
-2.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.9 mph
Avg launch angle11.1°
HRs allowed4
Pitches1012
Fastball
Hard · 19.4% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.0 mph
Avg launch angle34.8°
HRs allowed7
Pitches564
Curveball
Breaking · 14.4% usage
-0.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against77.7 mph
Avg launch angle-3.0°
HRs allowed1
Pitches420
Sweeper
Breaking · 10.7% usage
+2.7
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.8 mph
Avg launch angle9.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches312
Cutter
Hard · 10.5% usage
+1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.0 mph
Avg launch angle19.5°
HRs allowed2
Pitches306
Changeup
Offspeed · 6.2% usage
+1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.4 mph
Avg launch angle8.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches181
Slider
Breaking · 3.9% usage
-1.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.8 mph
Avg launch angle17.7°
HRs allowed0
Pitches115
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Nolan McLean.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
26 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.9 EV · 391 ft
4 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-23
9
0
104.4
2026-09-17
9
0
106.7
2026-09-11
9
2
109.6
2026-09-04
8
1
109.7
2026-08-29
9
1
113.4
2026-08-23
9
1
106.4
2026-08-17
8
0
111.3
2026-08-11
7
2
109.3
2026-08-06
8
1
111.7
2026-07-30
9
2
112.8
2026-07-25
9
1
107.7
2026-07-19
7
1
107.0
2026-07-10
6
1
111.0
2026-07-05
7
1
106.4
2026-06-30
7
0
107.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Nolan McLean isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Nolan McLean isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
129
15
12%
14
3
21%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 14. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Nolan McLean
How many home runs has Nolan McLean allowed this season?
Nolan McLean has allowed 26 home runs across 29 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Nolan McLean?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Nolan McLean include Matt Olson (2), Alec Bohm (1), Ben Rice (1) and 22 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.