14
HRs allowed
10.0%
HR rate (pool)
17.6%
Overall HR/FB
3.07
FIP
3.03
xFIP
+0.03
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
83
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 83th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
71.1%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.4 EV · 389 ft
max EV allowed 111.0
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 2 HR
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Nolan McLean.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sinker Hard
33.7%
81.9
9.2°
3
-3.1
Fastball Hard
19.8%
83.5
34.1°
3
-0.9
Sweeper Breaking
16.4%
76.6
11.0°
2
+2.8
Curveball Breaking
13.0%
76.2
-9.6°
0
-0.8
Cutter Hard
10.1%
83.5
18.3°
2
+4.1
Changeup Offspeed
6.5%
73.5
1.2°
0
+1.1
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups140
HRs allowed (pool)14
Pool HR rate10.0%
Pool HR/game day0.82
Top-15 matchups7
HRs to top-152
Overall HR/FB17.6% 83
HR/9—
FIP3.07 17
xFIP3.03
FIP − xFIP+0.03 50
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed71.1%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Sinker
Hard · 33.7% usage
-3.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.9 mph
Avg launch angle9.2°
HRs allowed3
Pitches602
Fastball
Hard · 19.8% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle34.1°
HRs allowed3
Pitches355
Sweeper
Breaking · 16.4% usage
+2.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.6 mph
Avg launch angle11.0°
HRs allowed2
Pitches293
Curveball
Breaking · 13.0% usage
-0.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against76.2 mph
Avg launch angle-9.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches232
Cutter
Hard · 10.1% usage
+4.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.5 mph
Avg launch angle18.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches181
Changeup
Offspeed · 6.5% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against73.5 mph
Avg launch angle1.2°
HRs allowed0
Pitches117
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Nolan McLean.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
14 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.4 EV · 389 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-10
6
1
111.0
2026-07-05
7
1
106.4
2026-06-30
7
0
107.4
2026-06-24
9
2
108.2
2026-06-17
8
0
107.0
2026-06-12
8
1
110.5
2026-06-06
6
0
108.2
2026-05-31
9
0
106.9
2026-05-25
9
2
107.1
2026-05-19
9
2
106.0
2026-05-14
9
2
106.6
2026-05-08
9
1
101.8
2026-05-02
9
0
102.0
2026-04-26
9
0
109.1
2026-04-21
9
1
103.1
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Nolan McLean isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.