MLB Home Run Predictions — September 5, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-05: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 5, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #2 | Kyle Schwarber | Martín Pérez | 69 | C+ Value |
| #4 | Munetaka Murakami | Taj Bradley | 65 | C+ Value |
| #13 | Colson Montgomery | Taj Bradley | 62 | C+ Value |
| #14 | Rafael Devers | Zac Thornton | 62 | C+ Value |
| #20 | Ryan Jeffers | Anthony Kay | 60 | C+ Value |
| #22 | Ketel Marte | Ethan Pecko | 60 | C+ Value |
| #27 | Junior Caminero | Jacob deGrom | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #28 | Max Muncy | Cade Cavalli | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #30 | Joc Pederson | Drew Rasmussen | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #50 | Elly De La Cruz | Dustin May | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #51 | Kyle Stowers | Javier Assad | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #63 | John Rave | Max Scherzer | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #68 | Tyler Stephenson | Dustin May | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #69 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Zack Wheeler | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #72 | Griffin Conine | Javier Assad | 49 | D Below |
| #86 | Michael Conforto | Ryan Gusto | 47 | D Below |
| #88 | Jonathan Aranda | Jacob deGrom | 47 | D Below |
| #108 | Matt McLain | Dustin May | 46 | D Below |
| #119 | Austin Riley | Zack Wheeler | 45 | D Below |
| #122 | William Contreras | Andrew Abbott | 45 | D Below |
| #137 | Bryan Reynolds | Yusei Kikuchi | 43 | D Below |
| #146 | Iván Herrera | Mason Adams | 42 | D Below |
| #147 | Riley Greene | Parker Messick | 42 | D Below |
| #156 | Lawrence Butler | George Kirby | 41 | D Below |
| #159 | Manny Machado | Carlos Rodón | 41 | D Below |
| #179 | Tommy Edman | Cade Cavalli | 39 | D Below |
| #180 | Osleivis Basabe | Zac Thornton | 39 | D Below |
| #197 | Grant McCray | Zac Thornton | 37 | D Below |
| #199 | Richie Palacios | Jacob deGrom | 36 | D Below |
| #209 | Josh Lowe | Braxton Ashcraft | 35 | D Below |
| #213 | Evan Carter | Drew Rasmussen | 35 | D Below |
| #232 | A.J. Ewing | Anthony Molina | 33 | D Below |
| #237 | Christian Koss | Zac Thornton | 30 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Kyle Stowers, John Rave, Tyler Stephenson, Ronald Acuña Jr., Griffin Conine, Michael Conforto, Jonathan Aranda, Matt McLain, Austin Riley, William Contreras, Bryan Reynolds, Iván Herrera, Riley Greene, Lawrence Butler, Manny Machado, Tommy Edman, Osleivis Basabe, Grant McCray, Richie Palacios, Josh Lowe, Evan Carter, A.J. Ewing, Christian Koss