MLB Home Run Predictions — September 6, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-06: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 6, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
29
HRs by scored batters
2/5
Top-5 picks that homered
3/15
Top-15 picks that homered
47.2 vs 44.1
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Tyler Mahle | 71 | B AboveAvg |
| #5 | Yordan Alvarez | Eduardo Rodriguez | 68 | C+ Value |
| #15 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Tyler Phillips | 61 | C+ Value |
| #16 | Jake Bauers | Brady Singer | 61 | C+ Value |
| #24 | Ronald Acuña Jr. | Aaron Nola | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #29 | Elly De La Cruz | Kyle Harrison | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #31 | Cj Abrams | Justin Wrobleski | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #48 | Jake Burger | Ian Seymour | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #49 | Mickey Moniak | Kyle Leahy | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #50 | Corey Seager | Ian Seymour | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #80 | Salvador Perez | Spencer Arrighetti | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #83 | Heriberto Hernández | Clay Holmes | 49 | D Below |
| #91 | Nolan Arenado | Peter Lambert | 48 | D Below |
| #101 | Vinnie Pasquantino | Spencer Arrighetti | 47 | D Below |
| #105 | Kyle Teel | Bailey Ober | 46 | D Below |
| #116 | Brooks Lee | Bryan Hudson | 45 | D Below |
| #121 | Nolan Gorman | Tanner Gordon | 45 | D Below |
| #129 | Jake McCarthy | Kyle Leahy | 44 | D Below |
| #145 | Mookie Betts | Andrew Alvarez | 43 | D Below |
| #148 | Fernando Tatis Jr. | Gerrit Cole | 42 | D Below |
| #151 | Manny Machado | Gerrit Cole | 42 | D Below |
| #165 | Eli White | Kyle Bradish | 41 | D Below |
| #188 | Brayan Rocchio | Jackson Jobe | 38 | D Below |
| #196 | Josh Smith | Randy Dobnak | 37 | D Below |
| #204 | Luis Campusano | Gerrit Cole | 36 | D Below |
| #215 | Henry Davis | Walbert Ureña | 35 | D Below |
| #220 | Bo Bichette | SF Bullpen Proxy | 38 | D Below |
| #250 | Javier Sanoja | Clay Holmes | 26 | D Below |
| #257 | Jake Cronenworth | Gerrit Cole | 23 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Salvador Perez, Heriberto Hernández, Nolan Arenado, Vinnie Pasquantino, Kyle Teel, Brooks Lee, Nolan Gorman, Jake McCarthy, Mookie Betts, Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Eli White, Brayan Rocchio, Josh Smith, Luis Campusano, Henry Davis, Bo Bichette, Javier Sanoja, Jake Cronenworth
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.