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1 Rafael Devers 8 HRs · 2 Heriberto Hernández 5 HRs · 3 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 4 Cal Raleigh 5 HRs · 5 Francisco Lindor 4 HRs · 6 Colson Montgomery 4 HRs · 7 Eugenio Suárez 4 HRs · 8 Sal Stewart 4 HRs · 9 Kyle Schwarber 4 HRs · 10 Jonathan Aranda 4 HRs · 11 Carter Jensen 4 HRs · 12 Daylen Lile 4 HRs 1 Rafael Devers 8 HRs · 2 Heriberto Hernández 5 HRs · 3 Pete Crow-Armstrong 5 HRs · 4 Cal Raleigh 5 HRs · 5 Francisco Lindor 4 HRs · 6 Colson Montgomery 4 HRs · 7 Eugenio Suárez 4 HRs · 8 Sal Stewart 4 HRs · 9 Kyle Schwarber 4 HRs · 10 Jonathan Aranda 4 HRs · 11 Carter Jensen 4 HRs · 12 Daylen Lile 4 HRs

MLB Home Run Predictions — September 7, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-09-07: what the model predicted, what actually happened.

Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 7, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.

19
HRs by scored batters
3/5
Top-5 picks that homered
5/15
Top-15 picks that homered
46.5 vs 41.7
Avg score: HR vs miss

Catch rates by cutoff

How many of our top-N picks went yard on 2026-09-07.
Top 5
3/5
60.0%
Top 10
4/10
40.0%
Top 15
5/15
33.3%
Top 25
6/25
24.0%

Home runs, graded

19 home runs by batters the model scored that day, listed by model rank. Low rank = the model called it; high rank = an honest miss.
RankBatterVs pitcherScoreTier
#1 Kyle Schwarber Grant Holmes
Citizens Bank Park
 73 B AboveAvg
#2 Kazuma Okamoto Jacob Lopez
Sutter Health Park
 63 C+ Value
#3 Pete Crow-Armstrong Robert Gasser
American Family Field
 62 C+ Value
#9 Elly De La Cruz LAD Bullpen Proxy
Dodger Stadium
 62 C+ Value
#13 Coby Mayo Joey Cantillo
Camden Yards
 57 C BelowAvg
#17 Eugenio Suárez LAD Bullpen Proxy
Dodger Stadium
 59 C BelowAvg
#46 Riley Greene Joe Ryan
Comerica Park
 47 D Below
#60 Jarren Duran Grayson Rodriguez
Fenway Park
 46 D Below
#66 Adley Rutschman Grayson Rodriguez
Fenway Park
 45 D Below
#83 Teoscar Hernández Chase Burns
Dodger Stadium
 43 D Below
#98 Henry Bolte Dylan Cease
Sutter Health Park
 40 D Below
#101 Andrés Giménez Jacob Lopez
Sutter Health Park
 39 D Below
#112 Alec Burleson Logan Webb
Oracle Park
 37 D Below
#117 Trevor Larnach Troy Melton
Comerica Park
 36 D Below
#121 Moisés Ballesteros Brayan Bello
Fenway Park
 36 D Below
#122 Pedro Ramírez Robert Gasser
American Family Field
 36 D Below
#137 Kevin McGonigle Joe Ryan
Comerica Park
 34 D Below
#138 Graham Pauley Jonah Tong
loanDepot Park
 34 D Below
#144 Dylan Crews Nick Pivetta
Petco Park
 34 D Below

Outside the top 50

Batters who homered but sat below our top-50 cut — the misses stay on the page.

Jarren Duran, Adley Rutschman, Teoscar Hernández, Henry Bolte, Andrés Giménez, Alec Burleson, Trevor Larnach, Moisés Ballesteros, Pedro Ramírez, Kevin McGonigle, Graham Pauley, Dylan Crews

← 2026-09-06 Today's predictions
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.
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