12
HRs allowed
12.2%
HR rate (pool)
18.4%
Overall HR/FB
5.47
FIP
5.03
xFIP
+0.44
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
85
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 85th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
76.1%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.7 EV · 387 ft
max EV allowed 115.3
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 0 HR
30D · 0 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Erick Fedde.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Sweeper Breaking
37.3%
81.7
19.8°
4
-0.9
Sinker Hard
29.0%
85.3
16.6°
3
+0.3
Cutter Hard
18.7%
83.3
24.8°
6
+1.1
Changeup Offspeed
13.5%
83.9
7.2°
2
+3.3
Fastball Hard
1.6%
83.3
24.5°
0
+2.3
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups98
HRs allowed (pool)12
Pool HR rate12.2%
Pool HR/game day1.09
Top-15 matchups7
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB18.4% 85
HR/9—
FIP5.47 88
xFIP5.03
FIP − xFIP+0.44 71
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed76.1%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-16
Sweeper
Breaking · 37.3% usage
-0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against81.7 mph
Avg launch angle19.8°
HRs allowed4
Pitches570
Sinker
Hard · 29.0% usage
+0.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.3 mph
Avg launch angle16.6°
HRs allowed3
Pitches443
Cutter
Hard · 18.7% usage
+1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.3 mph
Avg launch angle24.8°
HRs allowed6
Pitches286
Changeup
Offspeed · 13.5% usage
+3.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.9 mph
Avg launch angle7.2°
HRs allowed2
Pitches207
Fastball
Hard · 1.6% usage
+2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.3 mph
Avg launch angle24.5°
HRs allowed0
Pitches24
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Erick Fedde.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
12 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.7 EV · 387 ft
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 11 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-30
9
0
107.2
2026-06-24
8
0
102.0
2026-06-03
9
0
105.9
2026-05-29
9
1
109.1
2026-05-17
9
2
108.0
2026-05-12
9
2
114.5
2026-05-05
9
3
106.5
2026-04-29
9
1
109.0
2026-04-18
9
2
115.3
2026-04-11
9
1
113.1
2026-03-31
9
0
105.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Erick Fedde isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.