16
HRs allowed
21.9%
HR rate (pool)
19.0%
Overall HR/FB
4.5
FIP
4.05
xFIP
+0.45
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
86
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 86th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
63.2%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.0 EV · 387 ft
max EV allowed 112.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 3 HR
15D · 5 HR
30D · 12 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Zebby Matthews.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
36.6%
85.4
31.4°
4
-0.4
Slider Breaking
21.5%
85.0
13.1°
3
-1.8
Curveball Breaking
12.7%
82.4
22.3°
2
+0.6
Changeup Offspeed
12.5%
86.0
9.8°
2
+2.6
Cutter Hard
12.4%
85.6
17.9°
2
+0.1
Sinker Hard
4.3%
87.8
11.6°
1
+4.2
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups73
HRs allowed (pool)16
Pool HR rate21.9%
Pool HR/game day1.78
Top-15 matchups8
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB19.0% 86
HR/9—
FIP4.5 66
xFIP4.05
FIP − xFIP+0.45 71
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed63.2%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-15
Fastball
Hard · 36.6% usage
-0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.4 mph
Avg launch angle31.4°
HRs allowed4
Pitches374
Slider
Breaking · 21.5% usage
-1.8
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.0 mph
Avg launch angle13.1°
HRs allowed3
Pitches220
Curveball
Breaking · 12.7% usage
+0.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.4 mph
Avg launch angle22.3°
HRs allowed2
Pitches130
Changeup
Offspeed · 12.5% usage
+2.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.0 mph
Avg launch angle9.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches128
Cutter
Hard · 12.4% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.6 mph
Avg launch angle17.9°
HRs allowed2
Pitches127
Sinker
Hard · 4.3% usage
+4.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against87.8 mph
Avg launch angle11.6°
HRs allowed1
Pitches44
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Zebby Matthews.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
16 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.0 EV · 387 ft
12 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 9 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-10
9
1
110.0
2026-07-04
7
2
107.4
2026-06-29
9
2
111.3
2026-06-22
8
2
112.8
2026-06-16
6
0
106.6
2026-06-11
9
5
104.9
2026-06-05
7
0
111.6
2026-05-31
9
2
107.0
2026-05-25
9
2
105.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Zebby Matthews isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.