27
HRs allowed
16.1%
HR rate (pool)
21.5%
Overall HR/FB
4.81
FIP
4.07
xFIP
+0.74
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
88
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 88th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
24.4%
Hard-Hit% allowed
66.7%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.2 EV · 387 ft
max EV allowed 112.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 2 HR
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Zebby Matthews.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
35.8%
85.3
29.5°
7
+0.1
Slider Breaking
22.8%
84.2
12.0°
5
-2.3
Changeup Offspeed
13.2%
86.5
14.2°
3
+2.5
Cutter Hard
12.4%
85.6
17.7°
5
+1.6
Curveball Breaking
11.1%
83.4
13.1°
3
+0.4
Sinker Hard
4.7%
82.5
12.3°
1
+0.5
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups168
HRs allowed (pool)27
Pool HR rate16.1%
Pool HR/game day1.29
Top-15 matchups22
HRs to top-153
Overall HR/FB21.5% 88
HR/9—
FIP4.81 77
xFIP4.07
FIP − xFIP+0.74 84
Barrel% allowed24.4%
Hard-Hit% allowed66.7%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-10-17
Fastball
Hard · 35.8% usage
+0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.3 mph
Avg launch angle29.5°
HRs allowed7
Pitches757
Slider
Breaking · 22.8% usage
-2.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.2 mph
Avg launch angle12.0°
HRs allowed5
Pitches483
Changeup
Offspeed · 13.2% usage
+2.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.5 mph
Avg launch angle14.2°
HRs allowed3
Pitches280
Cutter
Hard · 12.4% usage
+1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.6 mph
Avg launch angle17.7°
HRs allowed5
Pitches263
Curveball
Breaking · 11.1% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.4 mph
Avg launch angle13.1°
HRs allowed3
Pitches235
Sinker
Hard · 4.7% usage
+0.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.5 mph
Avg launch angle12.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches99
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Zebby Matthews.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
27 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.2 EV · 387 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-09-21
3
1
104.3
2026-09-16
9
0
107.0
2026-09-09
8
1
102.9
2026-09-04
9
3
109.1
2026-08-30
9
0
105.0
2026-08-24
5
0
111.8
2026-08-18
9
1
109.5
2026-08-12
8
2
104.5
2026-08-07
9
1
108.7
2026-07-31
9
1
111.5
2026-07-24
8
0
100.0
2026-07-19
9
1
106.6
2026-07-10
9
1
110.0
2026-07-04
7
2
107.4
2026-06-29
9
2
111.3
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Zebby Matthews isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Zebby Matthews isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
67
6
9%
17
6
35%
18
5
28%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
7
2
29%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 12. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Zebby Matthews
How many home runs has Zebby Matthews allowed this season?
Zebby Matthews has allowed 27 home runs across 21 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Zebby Matthews?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Zebby Matthews include Colt Keith (2), Alex Bregman (1), Ben Rice (1) and 36 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.