22
HRs allowed
16.9%
HR rate (pool)
21.3%
Overall HR/FB
4.79
FIP
4.09
xFIP
+0.70
FIP − xFIP gap
#4
Leakiest SP today (of 28, by FIP−xFIP)
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
88
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
no model flags today
Vulnerability 88th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
26.2%
Hard-Hit% allowed
66.4%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 102.8 EV · 387 ft
max EV allowed 112.8
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 1 HR
15D · 3 HR
30D · 5 HR
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
FB 52.5%
BRK 34.7%
OFF 12.8%
Overall
Score
Neutral · 4
Long shots · 4 — below the fade line
Read the columns: the fastball family (52.5% usage) carries his damage — FB is the leak.
6 of 8 listed bats hold the platoon edge.
Cells are each batter's season damage vs that family (not vs this pitcher specifically).
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Fastball Hard
36.3%
85.6
28.7°
5
-0.1
Slider Breaking
22.4%
84.5
11.8°
5
-1.5
Changeup Offspeed
12.8%
85.6
12.8°
2
+2.6
Curveball Breaking
12.3%
83.1
14.1°
3
+0.9
Cutter Hard
10.9%
84.8
14.2°
3
+1.6
Sinker Hard
5.3%
82.1
14.3°
1
+0.9
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups130
HRs allowed (pool)22
Pool HR rate16.9%
Pool HR/game day1.38
Top-15 matchups13
HRs to top-151
Overall HR/FB21.3% 88
HR/9—
FIP4.79 76
xFIP4.09
FIP − xFIP+0.70 83
Barrel% allowed26.2%
Hard-Hit% allowed66.4%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-30
Fastball
Hard · 36.3% usage
-0.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.6 mph
Avg launch angle28.7°
HRs allowed5
Pitches604
Slider
Breaking · 22.4% usage
-1.5
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.5 mph
Avg launch angle11.8°
HRs allowed5
Pitches372
Changeup
Offspeed · 12.8% usage
+2.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.6 mph
Avg launch angle12.8°
HRs allowed2
Pitches213
Curveball
Breaking · 12.3% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle14.1°
HRs allowed3
Pitches204
Cutter
Hard · 10.9% usage
+1.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.8 mph
Avg launch angle14.2°
HRs allowed3
Pitches182
Sinker
Hard · 5.3% usage
+0.9
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against82.1 mph
Avg launch angle14.3°
HRs allowed1
Pitches88
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
BatterPAHHRKwOBALast damage
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
22 allowed · scored pool
avg 102.8 EV · 387 ft
5 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-08-24
5
0
111.8
2026-08-18
9
1
109.5
2026-08-12
8
2
104.5
2026-08-07
9
1
108.7
2026-07-31
9
1
111.5
2026-07-24
8
0
100.0
2026-07-19
9
1
106.6
2026-07-10
9
1
110.0
2026-07-04
7
2
107.4
2026-06-29
9
2
111.3
2026-06-22
8
2
112.8
2026-06-16
6
0
106.6
2026-06-11
9
5
104.9
2026-06-05
7
0
111.6
2026-05-31
9
2
107.0
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight — Target Field
open-air · game-window conditions
Park Factor
0.943
Wind
6 mph from SE
Temp
84°F
Roof
Open
TimeWindTempFIT
1:10p
6
84°
-6
2:10p
7
87°
-7
3:10p
8
89°
-7
4:10p
9
91°
-7
5:10p
8
91°
-7
-7
Slight red alignment
park + weather FIT · batter-neutral signal
Game-window avg wind 8 mph from SSE
FIT = park + game-window weather HR signal, batter-neutral. Per-batter spray overlays live on each batter's profile.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
LF
339ft
deep
CF
404ft
avg
RF
328ft
avg
vs LHH → RF ▲ leans
340ft
12 HRs allowed · short porch
vs RHH → LF
357ft
8 HRs allowed
Shortest: RF 328 ft
HRs allowed avg 387 ft · n=22
Fence marks are published; power-alley + pull-side depths come from the park's outfield geometry, calibrated to those marks. We don't track HR spray direction — pull side is inferred from batter handedness (LHH→RF, RHH→LF), not a measured read.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
49
6
12%
9
5
56%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
7
2
29%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 11. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Zebby Matthews
Is Zebby Matthews likely to give up a home run tonight?
Zebby Matthews pitches tonight (CWS @ MIN at Target Field). This season he has allowed 22 home runs across 16 scored game days. TheHomeRuns model scores every batter he faces; see the matchup table on this page for tonight's most dangerous bats. Model output, not a guarantee. Not gambling advice.
How many home runs has Zebby Matthews allowed this season?
Zebby Matthews has allowed 22 home runs across 16 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Zebby Matthews?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Zebby Matthews include Alex Bregman (1), Ben Rice (1), Cal Raleigh (1) and 32 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.