MLB Home Run Predictions — September 9, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-09-09: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for September 9, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Hunter Brown | 73 | B AboveAvg |
| #5 | Munetaka Murakami | Lake Bachar | 67 | C+ Value |
| #6 | Max Muncy | Braydon Fisher | 66 | C+ Value |
| #8 | Luis García Jr. | Tomoyuki Sugano | 66 | C+ Value |
| #18 | Esmerlyn Valdez | Davis Martin | 62 | C+ Value |
| #19 | Carter Jensen | Zac Gallen | 62 | C+ Value |
| #20 | Max Muncy | Rhett Lowder | 62 | C+ Value |
| #23 | Coby Mayo | Foster Griffin | 60 | C+ Value |
| #27 | Elly De La Cruz | Yoshinobu Yamamoto | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #39 | Corey Seager | Kade Anderson | 56 | C BelowAvg |
| #40 | Jake Burger | Kade Anderson | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #42 | Wilyer Abreu | Ryan Johnson | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #43 | Bobby Witt Jr. | Zac Gallen | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #49 | Drake Baldwin | Griffin Jax | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #51 | Kody Clemens | Keider Montero | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #64 | Jackson Chourio | Kevin Gausman | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #66 | Victor Mesa Jr. | Reynaldo López | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #72 | Mookie Betts | Rhett Lowder | 50 | C BelowAvg |
| #78 | Henry Bolte | Braydon Fisher | 49 | D Below |
| #79 | Cam Smith | Cristopher Sánchez | 49 | D Below |
| #82 | Nathaniel Lowe | Shane Baz | 48 | D Below |
| #95 | Cody Bellinger | Tomoyuki Sugano | 47 | D Below |
| #99 | Francisco Lindor | Janson Junk | 46 | D Below |
| #102 | Roman Anthony | Ryan Johnson | 46 | D Below |
| #104 | Zach Neto | Jake Bennett | 46 | D Below |
| #114 | Nolan Arenado | Daniel Lynch IV | 45 | D Below |
| #119 | Trea Turner | Hunter Brown | 45 | D Below |
| #121 | Jackson Merrill | Jackson Kent | 45 | D Below |
| #133 | George Lombard Jr. | Tomoyuki Sugano | 44 | D Below |
| #143 | Owen Caissie | Robert Stock | 42 | D Below |
| #144 | Isaac Paredes | Cristopher Sánchez | 42 | D Below |
| #147 | Kyle Tucker | Rhett Lowder | 42 | D Below |
| #154 | Jose Siri | Jake Bennett | 41 | D Below |
| #155 | Connor Norby | Will Warren | 41 | D Below |
| #171 | Josh Bell | Keider Montero | 39 | D Below |
| #173 | Chase DeLauter | Shane Baz | 39 | D Below |
| #182 | Colt Keith | Zebby Matthews | 38 | D Below |
| #185 | Keibert Ruiz | Walker Buehler | 38 | D Below |
| #186 | William Contreras | Kevin Gausman | 38 | D Below |
| #187 | Christian Yelich | Kevin Gausman | 38 | D Below |
| #195 | Joe Mack | Robert Stock | 37 | D Below |
| #225 | Denzer Guzman | Jake Bennett | 33 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Kody Clemens, Jackson Chourio, Victor Mesa Jr., Mookie Betts, Henry Bolte, Cam Smith, Nathaniel Lowe, Cody Bellinger, Francisco Lindor, Roman Anthony, Zach Neto, Nolan Arenado, Trea Turner, Jackson Merrill, George Lombard Jr., Owen Caissie, Isaac Paredes, Kyle Tucker, Jose Siri, Connor Norby, Josh Bell, Chase DeLauter, Colt Keith, Keibert Ruiz, William Contreras, Christian Yelich, Joe Mack, Denzer Guzman