20
HRs allowed
16.7%
HR rate (pool)
23.6%
Overall HR/FB
7.55
FIP
5.36
xFIP
+2.19
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
93
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Susceptible
Vulnerability 93th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed
78.8%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 104.5 EV · 399 ft
max EV allowed 116.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 2 HR ↑
15D · 5 HR ↑
30D · 8 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Zack Littell.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Slider Breaking
29.4%
83.7
25.8°
4
-1.1
Fastball Hard
28.2%
85.5
35.2°
9
+2.1
Splitter Offspeed
19.0%
85.9
17.5°
4
+1.3
Sinker Hard
14.4%
83.1
19.4°
6
+4.4
Sweeper Breaking
9.0%
85.3
14.6°
0
-0.2
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups120
HRs allowed (pool)20
Pool HR rate16.7%
Pool HR/game day1.43
Top-15 matchups9
HRs to top-155
Overall HR/FB23.6% 93
HR/9—
FIP7.55 99
xFIP5.36
FIP − xFIP+2.19 98
Barrel% allowed0.0%
Hard-Hit% allowed78.8%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-07-15
Slider
Breaking · 29.4% usage
-1.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.7 mph
Avg launch angle25.8°
HRs allowed4
Pitches422
Fastball
Hard · 28.2% usage
+2.1
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.5 mph
Avg launch angle35.2°
HRs allowed9
Pitches405
Splitter
Offspeed · 19.0% usage
+1.3
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.9 mph
Avg launch angle17.5°
HRs allowed4
Pitches272
Sinker
Hard · 14.4% usage
+4.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against83.1 mph
Avg launch angle19.4°
HRs allowed6
Pitches207
Sweeper
Breaking · 9.0% usage
-0.2
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.3 mph
Avg launch angle14.6°
HRs allowed0
Pitches129
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Zack Littell.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
20 allowed · scored pool
avg 104.5 EV · 399 ft
8 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 14 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-06-28
9
2
107.7
2026-06-17
6
3
106.5
2026-06-12
8
3
106.6
2026-06-06
7
0
109.0
2026-05-31
9
0
106.5
2026-05-20
9
1
110.9
2026-05-15
9
0
116.5
2026-05-09
9
2
106.5
2026-05-03
9
0
107.8
2026-04-28
9
1
105.4
2026-04-22
9
3
110.3
2026-04-17
9
2
108.0
2026-04-12
9
2
110.7
2026-04-06
9
1
106.4
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Zack Littell isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Wall-distance overlays aren't tracked yet.
Venue splits
his HR/9 by venue
Per-venue HR splits aren't tracked yet.