23
HRs allowed
17.0%
HR rate (pool)
23.4%
Overall HR/FB
7.37
FIP
5.32
xFIP
+2.05
FIP − xFIP gap
Leak meter
STINGY
LEAKY
92
season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers — higher = more HR-prone
Tonight's read
vulnerability percentile · model flags
Meltdown Risk
Susceptible
Vulnerability 92th pctile (season HR/FB pctile vs MLB pitchers)
Where he leaks
quality of contact allowed · season
Barrel% allowed
22.2%
Hard-Hit% allowed
78.9%
Fly-ball rate
—
avg HR 103.9 EV · 399 ft
max EV allowed 116.5
Batted-ball xSLG splits and HR spray direction aren't tracked for pitchers yet.
Recent form
HR allowed by scored game day
7D · 0 HR
15D · 3 HR ↑
30D · 3 HR ↑
Dot size = HRs allowed that game day · scored pool only.
Threat Matrix
tonight's lineup × his arsenal families
No lineup yet — the Threat Matrix fills in when today's slate lists batters against Zack Littell.
Arsenal ledger
per-pitch damage against · season
PitchUseEVLAHRRV/100Damage
Slider Breaking
28.3%
84.3
25.7°
5
+0.0
Fastball Hard
25.5%
86.0
35.0°
13
+3.0
Splitter Offspeed
23.0%
85.4
12.7°
4
+0.4
Sinker Hard
14.4%
84.4
20.5°
6
+2.6
Sweeper Breaking
8.7%
84.0
19.1°
1
-0.0
RV/100 = run value against per 100 pitches — higher = more damage allowed. Damage bar is scaled across his own arsenal.
Full ledger
pool + season datapoints · pctile-chipped where ranked
Pool matchups135
HRs allowed (pool)23
Pool HR rate17.0%
Pool HR/game day1.44
Top-15 matchups12
HRs to top-156
Overall HR/FB23.4% 92
HR/9—
FIP7.37 99
xFIP5.32
FIP − xFIP+2.05 98
Barrel% allowed22.2%
Hard-Hit% allowed78.9%
FB%—
K/9—
BB/9—
WHIP—
IP—
Pool = tracked matchup population · pctile chips = MLB-wide percentile (hot ≥ 85) · as of 2026-08-31
Slider
Breaking · 28.3% usage
+0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.3 mph
Avg launch angle25.7°
HRs allowed5
Pitches558
Fastball
Hard · 25.5% usage
+3.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against86.0 mph
Avg launch angle35.0°
HRs allowed13
Pitches503
Splitter
Offspeed · 23.0% usage
+0.4
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against85.4 mph
Avg launch angle12.7°
HRs allowed4
Pitches453
Sinker
Hard · 14.4% usage
+2.6
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.4 mph
Avg launch angle20.5°
HRs allowed6
Pitches284
Sweeper
Breaking · 8.7% usage
-0.0
run value against / 100 pitches
Avg EV against84.0 mph
Avg launch angle19.1°
HRs allowed1
Pitches171
Usage by handedness
what tonight's lefties/righties will see
Per-handedness pitch usage isn't tracked yet — the arsenal cache is a season aggregate.
Zone map
damage by location
Per-zone damage isn't tracked yet for pitchers.
Pitcher vs. Batter
career PA vs tonight's listed order
No listed order yet — BvP rows appear when today's slate lists batters against Zack Littell.
BvP under 20 PA is noise — use it for pitch-mix memory, not projection. Context only: not part of the model score.
HR Log
23 allowed · scored pool
avg 103.9 EV · 399 ft
3 in last 30D
DateBatterRankScoreStadiumEVLADist
Every row is a scored-pool matchup — HRs to unscored batters aren't tracked. Pitch type, count, and field direction aren't in the pool log yet.
Game-day log
last 15 scored game days · pool
DateStadiumMatchupsHRMax EV
2026-07-29
9
0
108.6
2026-07-18
6
3
103.0
2026-06-28
9
2
107.7
2026-06-17
6
3
106.5
2026-06-12
8
3
106.6
2026-06-06
7
0
109.0
2026-05-31
9
0
106.5
2026-05-20
9
1
110.9
2026-05-15
9
0
116.5
2026-05-09
9
2
106.5
2026-05-03
9
0
107.8
2026-04-28
9
1
105.4
2026-04-22
9
3
110.3
2026-04-17
9
2
108.0
2026-04-12
9
2
110.7
Box-score start lines (IP · H · ER · K · BB · pitch counts) aren't tracked yet — this is his scored-pool day log, matchups our model actually graded.
Tonight
park factor · wind · temp
Ballpark conditions unavailable — Zack Littell isn't on a scored slate with park & weather inputs.
Fences vs his leak
wall distance · damage overlay
Zack Littell isn't on a scored slate — no park to compare his damage against.
Venue splits
HRs allowed by venue · pool
VenueFacedHRRate
86
13
15%
6
3
50%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
9
2
22%
9
1
11%
HRs allowed ÷ scored matchups at each park · top 6 of 7. Rate is per scored matchup, not HR/9 — box-score innings aren't tracked.
Common questions about Zack Littell
How many home runs has Zack Littell allowed this season?
Zack Littell has allowed 23 home runs across 16 scored game days in the TheHomeRuns pool this season.
Which batters have homered off Zack Littell?
In the TheHomeRuns scored pool, the batters with home runs against Zack Littell include Addison Barger (2), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2), Aaron Judge (1) and 46 more.
Model output for entertainment and research. Not gambling advice.