MLB Home Run Predictions — June 17, 2026

The graded receipt for 2026-06-17: what the model predicted, what actually happened.

Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for June 17, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.

HRs by scored batters

1/5

Top-5 picks that homered

1/15

Top-15 picks that homered

50.0 vs 44.9

Avg score: HR vs miss

Catch rates by cutoff

How many of our top-N picks went yard on 2026-06-17.

Top 5

1/5

20.0%

Top 10

1/10

10.0%

Top 15

1/15

6.7%

Top 25

6/25

24.0%

Home runs, graded

38 home runs by batters the model scored that day, listed by model rank. Low rank = the model called it; high rank = an honest miss.

Rank	Batter	Vs pitcher	Score	Tier
#5	Jackson Chourio	Gavin Williams American Family Field	76	B AboveAvg
#16	Dominic Canzone	Kyle Bradish T-Mobile Park	71	B AboveAvg
#17	Colson Montgomery	Carlos Rodón Yankee Stadium	71	B AboveAvg
#18	Paul Goldschmidt	Anthony Kay Yankee Stadium	70	B AboveAvg
#23	Hunter Goodman	Javier Assad Wrigley Field	69	C+ Value
#25	Pete Crow-Armstrong	COL Bullpen Proxy Wrigley Field	67	C+ Value
#33	Owen Caissie	Andrew Painter Citizens Bank Park	64	C+ Value
#34	Bryce Eldridge	Grant Holmes Truist Park	62	C+ Value
#35	Corbin Carroll	Sam Aldegheri Chase Field	62	C+ Value
#40	Cody Bellinger	Anthony Kay Yankee Stadium	61	C+ Value
#42	Zach Neto	Eduardo Rodriguez Chase Field	60	C+ Value
#53	Kerry Carpenter	Peter Lambert Minute Maid Park	57	C BelowAvg
#55	Zack Gelof	Braxton Ashcraft Sutter Health Park	56	C BelowAvg
#58	Ryan O'Hearn	Aaron Civale Sutter Health Park	56	C BelowAvg
#69	Freddie Freeman	Shane McClanahan Dodger Stadium	54	C BelowAvg
#71	Kyle Stowers	Andrew Painter Citizens Bank Park	54	C BelowAvg
#77	Carter Jensen	Zack Littell Nationals Park	53	C BelowAvg
#89	Lane Thomas	Zack Littell Nationals Park	51	C BelowAvg
#92	Willy Adames	Grant Holmes Truist Park	50	C BelowAvg
#93	Joe Mack	Andrew Painter Citizens Bank Park	50	C BelowAvg
#94	Mauricio Dubón	Adrian Houser Truist Park	50	C BelowAvg
#95	Michael Massey	Zack Littell Nationals Park	49	D Below
#124	Mauricio Dubón	SF Bullpen Proxy Truist Park	45	D Below
#126	Willy Adames	JR Ritchie Truist Park	44	D Below
#128	Daniel Schneemann	Brandon Sproat American Family Field	44	D Below
#136	Jackson Merrill	Kyle Leahy Busch Stadium	43	D Below
#142	Gunnar Henderson	George Kirby T-Mobile Park	41	D Below
#150	Marcell Ozuna	Aaron Civale Sutter Health Park	40	D Below
#156	Christian Yelich	Gavin Williams American Family Field	39	D Below
#157	Kevin McGonigle	Peter Lambert Minute Maid Park	39	D Below
#161	Sam Antonacci	Carlos Rodón Yankee Stadium	38	D Below
#167	Kyle Karros	Javier Assad Wrigley Field	36	D Below
#171	Jakob Marsee	Andrew Painter Citizens Bank Park	35	D Below
#180	Dansby Swanson	COL Bullpen Proxy Wrigley Field	33	D Below
#189	Cole Young	Kyle Bradish T-Mobile Park	32	D Below
#193	Jeremy Peña	Casey Mize Minute Maid Park	31	D Below
#195	Luis Arráez	JR Ritchie Truist Park	31	D Below
#230	Sterlin Thompson	Javier Assad Wrigley Field	17	D Below

Outside the top 50

Batters who homered but sat below our top-50 cut — the misses stay on the page.

Kerry Carpenter, Zack Gelof, Ryan O'Hearn, Freddie Freeman, Kyle Stowers, Carter Jensen, Lane Thomas, Willy Adames, Joe Mack, Mauricio Dubón, Michael Massey, Mauricio Dubón, Willy Adames, Daniel Schneemann, Jackson Merrill, Gunnar Henderson, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, Kevin McGonigle, Sam Antonacci, Kyle Karros, Jakob Marsee, Dansby Swanson, Cole Young, Jeremy Peña, Luis Arráez, Sterlin Thompson

The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.

Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.

See plans

MLB Home Run Predictions — June 17, 2026

Catch rates by cutoff

Home runs, graded

Outside the top 50

Yesterday's results + tonight's board. Every morning.