MLB Home Run Predictions — June 16, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-06-16: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for June 16, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
29
HRs by scored batters
0/5
Top-5 picks that homered
2/15
Top-15 picks that homered
53.3 vs 45.7
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #8 | Shohei Ohtani | Drew Rasmussen | 74 | B AboveAvg |
| #10 | Mike Trout | Merrill Kelly | 73 | B AboveAvg |
| #17 | Kyle Schwarber | Tyler Phillips | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #20 | Pete Crow-Armstrong | Ryan Feltner | 68 | C+ Value |
| #29 | Brandon Lowe | Jack Perkins | 65 | C+ Value |
| #30 | Zach Neto | Merrill Kelly | 65 | C+ Value |
| #31 | Sal Stewart | Kodai Senga | 65 | C+ Value |
| #35 | Ben Rice | Davis Martin | 63 | C+ Value |
| #36 | Spencer Steer | Kodai Senga | 63 | C+ Value |
| #39 | Esteury Ruiz | Jesús Luzardo | 61 | C+ Value |
| #40 | Kody Clemens | Kumar Rocker | 61 | C+ Value |
| #50 | Spencer Jones | Davis Martin | 59 | C BelowAvg |
| #58 | Zack Gelof | Mitch Keller | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #60 | Andrew Benintendi | Gerrit Cole | 57 | C BelowAvg |
| #63 | Paul Goldschmidt | Davis Martin | 55 | C BelowAvg |
| #69 | Curtis Mead | Michael Wacha | 54 | C BelowAvg |
| #82 | Bryan Reynolds | Jack Perkins | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #86 | Garrett Mitchell | Slade Cecconi | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #89 | Brice Turang | Slade Cecconi | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #98 | TJ Rumfield | Edward Cabrera | 49 | D Below |
| #106 | Brandon Marsh | Tyler Phillips | 48 | D Below |
| #114 | Alec Bohm | Tyler Phillips | 47 | D Below |
| #155 | Jarren Duran | Dylan Cease | 39 | D Below |
| #159 | Lane Thomas | Foster Griffin | 38 | D Below |
| #169 | José Caballero | Davis Martin | 36 | D Below |
| #170 | George Springer | Payton Tolle | 36 | D Below |
| #190 | Trevor Larnach | Kumar Rocker | 32 | D Below |
| #191 | Davis Schneider | Payton Tolle | 32 | D Below |
| #213 | Andrés Giménez | Payton Tolle | 23 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Zack Gelof, Andrew Benintendi, Paul Goldschmidt, Curtis Mead, Bryan Reynolds, Garrett Mitchell, Brice Turang, TJ Rumfield, Brandon Marsh, Alec Bohm, Jarren Duran, Lane Thomas, José Caballero, George Springer, Trevor Larnach, Davis Schneider, Andrés Giménez
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.