MLB Home Run Predictions — June 28, 2026
The graded receipt for 2026-06-28: what the model predicted, what actually happened.
Every morning TheHomeRuns.org ranks MLB batters by home-run probability, and every night the board is graded against real results — in public, hits and misses alike. Below is the full grade for June 28, 2026. Today's board lives at MLB home run predictions today; the season-long record is on the track record page.
22
HRs by scored batters
3/5
Top-5 picks that homered
4/15
Top-15 picks that homered
50.3 vs 43.2
Avg score: HR vs miss
Catch rates by cutoff
Home runs, graded
| Rank | Batter | Vs pitcher | Score | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| #1 | Kyle Schwarber | Cionel Pérez | 76 | B AboveAvg |
| #4 | Pete Alonso | Zack Littell | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #5 | Junior Caminero | Merrill Kelly | 70 | B AboveAvg |
| #9 | Joc Pederson | TOR Bullpen Proxy | 65 | C+ Value |
| #20 | Kody Clemens | Ryan Feltner | 62 | C+ Value |
| #30 | Jackson Holliday | Zack Littell | 58 | C BelowAvg |
| #43 | Esmerlyn Valdez | Brady Singer | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #46 | Miguel Vargas | Luinder Avila | 53 | C BelowAvg |
| #51 | Gary Sánchez | Ryan Rolison | 52 | C BelowAvg |
| #56 | Christian Walker | Jack Flaherty | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #58 | Manny Machado | Emmet Sheehan | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #60 | Ryan Kreidler | Ryan Feltner | 51 | C BelowAvg |
| #77 | Ketel Marte | Drew Rasmussen | 48 | D Below |
| #120 | Tyler Callihan | Brady Singer | 43 | D Below |
| #124 | Ryan O'Hearn | Brady Singer | 43 | D Below |
| #129 | Josh Lowe | Aaron Civale | 42 | D Below |
| #131 | Cedric Mullins | Merrill Kelly | 42 | D Below |
| #137 | Isaac Paredes | Jack Flaherty | 40 | D Below |
| #139 | Nathan Lukes | Kumar Rocker | 40 | D Below |
| #174 | Bryan Torres | Tyler Phillips | 36 | D Below |
| #184 | Ben Williamson | Merrill Kelly | 36 | D Below |
| #235 | Zach McKinstry | Hunter Brown | 24 | D Below |
Outside the top 50
Gary Sánchez, Christian Walker, Manny Machado, Ryan Kreidler, Ketel Marte, Tyler Callihan, Ryan O'Hearn, Josh Lowe, Cedric Mullins, Isaac Paredes, Nathan Lukes, Bryan Torres, Ben Williamson, Zach McKinstry
The archive is public. Tonight's names are Pro.
Every past board is graded in the open — that is the point. The full ranked board for tonight, all matchup tools included, is Pro.